Rental Market gets even Crazier in Phoenix

Last week my dad talked about the upward trends in the rental market.  Well since then the numbers have been getting even crazier, almost to the point of jaw-dropping!  What is especially interesting is the huge demand for traditional single family homes.  Now be forewarned, we only can track rentals that are advertised through the MLS, which here in Maricopa County is probably less than half of all the rentals available.  The rest are marketed through places like craigslist or rentals.com.  Still, we can get a pretty good idea of what’s going on in the rental market by watching the MLS numbers.

This time last year there were 2,760 listings available.  Today there are only 1,988.  That’s almost a 30% drop in the available supply.  On top of that, Rental prices are surging. The average rental price on MLS this time last year was $1,598.  Today it is a whopping $1,971!  That’s about a 20% increase in value!

Summary:   Landlords be feeling good! Tenants… not so much.

What does this mean for homeowners and potential buyers?  A lot.  With only a 25 day supply of available rentals in the valley, increasing demand for single family homes to rent, and rental prices surging, it’s not difficult to imagine a whole host of would-be-renters drawn toward becoming a buyer.  We have already seen an improvement in the residential for sale market in the last month, but we feel even better times may be ahead.

Sellers: The buyer drought seems to be over for now and it may be time for you to get back in the game.

Buyers.  Increase in demand and decrease in supply makes for rising prices.  Don’t forget that with an improving economy interest rates rise as well.  It seems as though the best days of the buyer’s market may be nearing its’ end.  You may want to think about making your move before the sellers’ market is in full swing and you have to start competing with other buyers again.

Thank you to Michael Orr and the Cromford Report for all the statistics used here in.

Housing Impact from a Super Week

For most of the nation, the holidays ended after New Year’s, but in Arizona, especially the Phoenix Metro communities, the party continued unabated through January, and ended yesterday with a Patriots interception in Super Bowl XL1X with 19 seconds left on the clock. Or did it end in a slugfest? Either way it ended and will go down as one of the great Super Bowls of all time. And in my opinion, it was a week (actually a month) that saw Phoenix and Arizona positively elevated by the glow of Super Bowl publicity.

It’s difficult (at best) to actually gauge all the benefits that will accrue to the Valley and State from the events of this past month. Is golf your thing? Well, not only can you play here in the dead of winter, but the Phoenix Open had some of its cooler temps and light rain Friday and Saturday but it still trumped most all other weather in the U.S. and had Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson (for Thursday and Friday anyway), and then Sunday’s warmth and sunshine climaxed a great finish, and timed the ending perfectly to switch over to the Super Bowl.

Are cars or horses a great love for you? Well, if so, the month of January would have pleased with the Arabian Horse show and the Barrett Jackson Car auction/event in North Scottsdale. And just as the football season ends, here comes baseball and spring training that will be starting up shortly.

And if you’re living here, whether it be as a snowbird or permanent resident, there are so many incredible great eateries and resorts, arts and sports throughout the valley to enjoy. And our people, including visitors, are a proverbial smorgasbord of niceness. And of course, the beauty of the Sonoran desert is amazing.

Regarding our local housing market, this type of continuous and positive national media coverage serves to reinforce a terrific and high quality place to live. Make no mistake, companies and prospective residents will continue to be checking us out. And as my baby boomer generation continues to age, many will want to age in warmth and recreation. And judging by what I’ve been observing recently with out of town buyers, they are liking what they see – and feel.

Do we have issues? Of course. All places do – welcome to humanity. But more important, welcome to a place that seems to really be learning how to provide folks with a Super lifestyle.

The Bodeen Zip Line Report – 11/01/2014

85254 – Zip Line Report

Active and Pending Listings are virtually unchanged from one year ago.  Sales are down while the median price has risen 10%.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         256                 vs        257                             Down Negligibly

Pending Listings:     38                   vs        36                               Up Slightly

Sales Per Month:     61                   vs        63                               Down Slightly

Sales Per Year:         716                 vs        932                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $425k             vs        $385k                        Up Significantly

 

85255 – Zip Line Report

This premier North Scottsdale zip code is showing active listings up and Pending listings down. Sales increased this last month versus last year, but are down 17% from last year.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         563                 vs        468                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     46                   vs        69                               Down Significantly

Sales Per Month:     71                   vs        68                               Up Slightly

Sales Per Year:         861                 vs        1,036                         Down Significantly

Median Price:           $637k            vs        $617k                        Up Slightly

 

85258 – Zip Line Report

Including the Ranches of McCormick, Scottsdale, and Gainey, listings are down 11% over last year, while the median price is showing an 8% gain over 2014.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         127                 vs        154                             Down Significantly

Pending Listings:     13                   vs        22                               Down Significantly

Sales Per Month:     35                   vs        29                               Up Slightly

Sales Per Year:         385                 vs        410                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $500k            vs        $465k                         Up Significantly

 

85259 – Zip Line Report

Listings are up 15% from last year, while Pending listings are the same. Annual sales are lower as well and the median price has dropped 10%.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         242                 vs        211                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     21                   vs        21                               No Change

Sales Per Month:     34                   vs        41                               Down Slightly

Sales Per Year:         409                 vs        522                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $556k            vs        $585k                        Down Slightly

 

85260 – Zip Line Report

Sales are doing very well this year, and are up 7% over last year. The median price however has dropped 9% from one year ago.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         199                 vs        192                             Up Slightly

Pending Listings:     24                   vs        29                               Down Slightly

Sales Per Month:     47                   vs        30                               Up Significantly

Sales Per Year:         504                 vs        470                             Up Significantly

Median Price:           $415k            vs        $457k                        Down Significantly

 

85262 – Zip Line Report

North Scottsdale’s most expensive and one of its nicest community’s, the median price is down 24% from last year. Pending listings are down as well.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         445                 vs        402                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     24                   vs        35                               Down Significantly

Sales Per Month:     22                   vs        32                               Down Significantly

Sales Per Year:         405                 vs        558                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $654k            vs        $860k                        Down Significantly

 

85266 – Zip Line Report

These very popular and upscale communities which are the North of North Scottsdale, and which is home to the newest zip code being added to Scottsdale, has seen appreciation of 8% from one year ago. Pending sales are down slightly and homes sales have dropped significantly from one year ago.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         201                 vs        166                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     17                   vs        27                               Down Significantly

Sales Per Month:     20                   vs        16                               Up Slightly

Sales Per Year:         266                 vs        356                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $722k            vs        $668k                        Up Significantly

 

85253 (Paradise Valley) – Zip Line Report

The Valley’s most upscale, prestigious, and expensive town currently has 347 homes for sales compared to 299 one year ago – an increase of 16%. Closed and Pending sales in Paradise Valley are off slightly from one year ago.

The median sales price is currently $1,763,000 having jumped significantly, as in 55%! Paradise Valley has recorded the largest median home price gain of any Arizona city.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         347                 vs        299                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     22                   vs        23                               Down Negligibly

Sales Per Month:     28                   vs        30                               Down Negligibly

Sales Per Year:         341                 vs        386                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $1.763k         vs        $1.138k                     Up Significantly

 

85268 (Fountain Hills) – Zip Line Report

Scottsdale’s most immediate eastern neighbor is accurately named for its mountain slopes and town fountain. For those wanting a small town feel, it doesn’t get much better than here. Listings and Pending listings are up over one year ago. The median price adjusted 3% lower.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         302                 vs        271                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     26                   vs        14                               Up Significantly

Sales Per Month:     38                   vs        24                               Up Significantly

Sales Per Year:         450                 vs        514                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $402k            vs        $415k                        Down Slightly

 

85331 (Town of Cave Creek) – Zip Line Report

Cave Creek has done a great job of standing strong in value. The median sales price of $461,000 is up 16% from 2013 and pending sales are down slightly from last year.

 Currently              Last Year                 Change

Active Listings:         320                 vs        290                             Up Significantly

Pending Listings:     33                   vs        39                                Down Slightly

Sales Per Month:     41                   vs        56                                 Down Significantly

Sales Per Year:         604                 vs        705                              Down Significantly

Median Price:           $461k            vs        $398k                         Up Significantly

 

85377 (Carefree) – Zip Line Report

The delightful and small town of Carefree is almost too small to accurately compare year to year stats. Having stated that, sales are way down at 73 this year compared to 110 one year ago. The median sales price increased 23% over one year ago.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         85                   vs        79                               Up Slightly

Pending Listings:     7                      vs        4                                  Up

Sales Per Month:     5                      vs        7                                  Down

Sales Per Year:         73                   vs        110                             Down Significantly

Median Price:           $732k            vs        $595k                        Up Significantly

 

85086 (Anthem – North Phoenix) – Zip Line Report

These communities remind me of North Scottsdale back in the mid 90’s – newer homes with beautiful mountain views in an unspoiled northern environment. These are the bargains of the valley. Prices are so affordable and only a 30 minute drive time to Sky Harbor Airport. Prices are virtually unchanged from one year ago, with sales being down 23%.

 Currently              Last Year              Change

Active Listings:         350                 vs        344                             Up Slightly

Pending Listings:     63                   vs        67                               Down Slightly

Sales Per Month:     71                   vs        64                               Up Slightly

Sales Per Year:         932                 vs        1210                          Down Significantly

Median Price:           $273k            vs        $269k                        Up Slightly

 

*With thanks to Michael Orr and the Cromford Report for the Statistics used.

Valley Wide Price drop…

Valley Wide Price drop…

When it comes to real estate trends nationally, Arizona often leads the nation statistically. We’ve seen this happen quite a bit this past decade, where in 2004 we started seeing Phoenix area homes get snatched up and home prices significantly escalate. We then watched the rest of the nation increase as well.

Market pricing peaked in August of 2005 followed by a steep decline which bottomed out in March of 2009. Foreclosures and Short Sales were the talk of the town. Investors poured into Arizona from all over to gobble up cheap homes. Flipping came to mean something much different than turning burgers.

Unfortunately, most all other states followed Arizona’s seismic downturn too. And that trend continues today. Amazingly, Arizona is now in the top five states with the lowest foreclosure sale notices.  We’ve turned around, other states have not.

Previously, the rest of the nation had been watching Arizona’s prices rise and their values followed suit. Now, Arizona is falling and, in my opinion, we’ll now observe the rest of the nation’s values likewise dropping.
Current Market Trends:

Locally, our largest cities, Phoenix and Mesa still have higher median prices currently compared to last year at this time. Phoenix one year ago had a median sales price of $179,000. Today, that median has increased to $190,000 – a 6% increase. Mesa, one year ago, was $179,950 compared to $198,500 today – an amazing 10% rise. Chandler ($255,000) and Tempe ($240,000) was a no gainer and a no loser, remaining the same. So as an owner of residential real estate, you just read the good news.

The current median sales price however for most other cities is down compared to one year ago. We have been watching this change trending over the past 6 months, and now it’s official. So, how have other cities fared this past year? Here’s a few:

Anthem: $246,000 vs $245,000. Less than 1% Price Drop.
Peoria: $230,255 vs $224,900. 2% Price Drop.
Fountain Hills: $391,950 vs $382,500. 2% Price Drop.
Scottsdale: $450,000 in 2013. $430,000 currently. 4% Price Drop.
Paradise Valley: $1,517,000 vs $1,362,000. 10% Price Drop.

So the market has changed over the past two months as previous stronger markets have weakened and a few of the weaker markets are improving.

Takeaway? Sellers, be realistic in pricing. Buyers, conditions for you continue to improve. Be ready.

Saguaro Estates

Saguaro Estates

 

Do you like gated privacy, spacious lots with generous building envelopes in a fresh newer North Scottsdale community located in the 85266 zip code? Welcome home! This serene desert community in North Scottsdale offers new homes on one acre home sites with excellent A Rated schools and lovely mountain views.  It’s a short drive down Scottsdale Rd to all that North Scottsdale has to offer including world class restaurants, shopping, golf, etc.

Saguaro Estats Plat Map

http://www.tollbrothers.com/AZ/Saguaro_Estates

Open and large Toll Brothers floor plans are featured with Contemporary, Spanish Colonial, and Tuscan style architectural designs. 7 distinct floor plans range from approximately 3,927 square feet to 6,430 square feet. Home highlights included 3-4 bedrooms, 3.5 to 4.5 bathrooms, 3-4 car garage, media rooms, serving centers, casitas and outdoor living options.

Toll Brothers not only builds homes, but whole communities. There are a number of Toll Brother Communities in the Valley including several in the North Scottsdale and North Phoenix area.  Saguaro Estates in my opinion is one Toll Brother’s crowning achievements.  They are a fortune 1000 company and was recently named by Builder Magazine the 2014 Builder of the Year.

Two Toll Brother models are available onsite. Pricing begins in the low $900’s. Call Mike or Jonathan Bodeen to view this community firsthand. There are still a few good lots to choose from.

And remember, it costs you nothing to have our professional representation, but we must accompany you to the community the first time you go, or the builder is not required to pay our fee. Call us now at 602-689-3100.

North Scottsdale Zip Code Report: 85266

The 85266 Zip code, which is the most northern reaches of North Scottsdale is showing August sales to be down 29% versus 2013. The monthly median sales price in the North Scottsdale zip code is now back up to a median sales price of $620,000 compared with $605,000 one year ago and up 41% over August of 2012. Pending listings in North Scottsdale 85266 are at their lowest point since October of 2013.

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The Bodeen Zip Line Report – Real Estate Market Update – North Scottsdale Zip Codes  and Surrounding Communities

The Bodeen Zip Line Report – Real Estate Market Update – North Scottsdale Zip Codes and Surrounding Communities

Blog Image - NorthScottsdaleNews

85254

Home sales bottomed out in March of this year and have increased since then peaking in July. The magical 85254 zip code real estate market dropped back in July registering 66 sales, compared with 104 from one year ago. The median priced sale in July was $378,000, down from the same month last year.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         281                 vs        186

Pending Listings:     45                   vs        44

Sales Per Month:     66                   vs        104

Sales Per Year:         719                 vs        966

Median Price:           $378k            vs        $391k

 

85255

The median sales price in the very popular 85255 Zip Code for August 2014 was $633,000. This is an 8% drop over August of last year and a 1% drop from last month. Sales took an 8% drop from 91 sales last August 2013 to 74 last month – a 19% decrease.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         509                 vs        371

Pending Listings:     57                   vs        73

Sales Per Month:     74                   vs        91

Sales Per Year:         896                 vs        1045

Median Price:           $633k            vs        $685k

 

85258

Including The Ranches of McCormick, Scottsdale, and Gainey, listings are up 31% over last year, while the median price is showing an 11% gain over August 2014.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         146                 vs        111

Pending Listings:     18                   vs        23

Sales Per Month:     38                   vs        36

Sales Per Year:         379                 vs        413

Median Price:           $520k            vs        $480k

 

85259

Well, if we had an East Scottsdale, it would include the 85259 Zip which extends from 104th Street to Fountain Hills and has a portion of Scottsdale Ranch, south of Shea. These communities, mostly developed in the late 80’s and 90’s are very popular with year-rounders as well as snowbirds. The median price is up 12% from this time last year. Current listings are up 46% from last year – no supply problem here!

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         230                 vs        157

Pending Listings:     33                   vs        39

Sales Per Month:     38                   vs        43

Sales Per Year:         425                 vs        501

Median Price:           $595k            vs        $530k

 

85260

Perhaps North Scottsdale’s most central and (next to 85254) it’s most affordable zip code. The median price is pretty much mirroring August of last year, while sales were exactly the same from last year at 48 for the month.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         215                 vs        145

Pending Listings:     33                   vs        37

Sales Per Month:     48                   vs        48

Sales Per Year:         481                 vs        579

Median Price:           $423k            vs        $430k

 

85262

North Scottsdale’s most expensive and one of its nicest community’s, the median price is up slightly from last year. Pending listings are down slightly.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         352                 vs        308

Pending Listings:     35                   vs        40

Sales Per Month:     32                   vs        42

Sales Per Year:         420                 vs        467

Median Price:           $740k            vs        $735k

 

85266

These very popular and upscale communities which are the North of North Scottsdale, and which is home to the newest zip code being added to Scottsdale, has seen appreciation of almost 20% from one year ago. Pending sales and August sales are down slightly from one year ago.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         150                 vs        121

Pending Listings:     18                   vs        20

Sales Per Month:     21                   vs        25

Sales Per Year:         268                 vs        374

Median Price:           $735k            vs        $620k

 

85253

(Paradise Valley): The Valley’s most upscale, prestigious, and expensive town currently has 301 homes for sales compared to 258 one year ago. Closed and Pending sales in Paradise Valley are off slightly from one year ago.

The median sales price is currently $1,235,000 — virtually unchanged from one year ago.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         301                 vs        258

Pending Listings:     19                   vs        24

Sales Per Month:     22                   vs        30

Sales Per Year:         352                 vs        386

Median Price:           $1.235k         vs        $1.270k

 

85268

(Fountain Hills): Scottsdale’s most immediate eastern neighbor is accurately named for its mountain slopes and town fountain. For those wanting a small town feel, it doesn’t get much better than here.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         236                 vs        193

Pending Listings:     21                   vs        27

Sales Per Month:     32                   vs        43

Sales Per Year:         450                 vs        531

Median Price:           $369k            vs        $375k

 

85331

(Town of Cave Creek): Cave Creek has done a great job of standing strong in value. The median sales price of $424,000 for August is up 13% from 2013 and pending sales are about the same as last year too.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         292                 vs        243

Pending Listings:     58                   vs        59

Sales Per Month:     56                   vs        61

Sales Per Year:         609                 vs        697

Median Price:           $424k            vs        $375k

 

85377

(Carefree) The delightful and small town of Carefree is almost too small to accurately compare year to year stats. Having stated that, sales are way down from August 2013 at 60 – this compared to 115 one year ago. The median sales price brings one word to mind: BARGAIN!

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         74                   vs        63

Pending Listings:     4                      vs        4

Sales Per Month:     5                      vs        7

Sales Per Year:         69                   vs        115

Median Price:           $537k            vs        $850k

 

85086

(Anthem – North Phoenix) These communities remind me of North Scottsdale back in the mid 90’s – newer homes with beautiful mountain views in an unspoiled northern environment. These communities are the bargains of the valley. Prices are so affordable and only a 30 minute drive time to Sky Harbor Airport. Prices are unchanged from one year ago, with sales being down 26%.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         376                 vs        281

Pending Listings:     66                   vs        101

Sales Per Month:     96                   vs        122

Sales Per Year:         936                 vs        1273

Median Price:           $275k            vs        $275k

 

*With thanks to Michael Orr and the Cromford Report for the Statistics used.