Election Aftermath – What Does it Mean for the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

Election Aftermath – What Does it Mean for the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

First let me say this is neither a pro or anti Trump article and I have taken special care to keep it that way.  This is simply one person’s analysis of the facts as we have them presently.

The Financial Markets:

Many are predicting a more business friendly, pro-growth administration over the next 4 years.  As a result, the markets seem to be reacting positively, at least for the most part.  I won’t pretend to understand all that except as it effects real estate.
There is a trend we have noticed that when the financial markets are doing well, we tend to see an increase in the 500K+ real estate markets here in the valley.  Why is that?  Well when folks are feeling optimistic about their portfolios, they are more apt to go out and buy those second homes, or finally make the big move from cold country to the Valley of the Sun.
This is badly needed in our luxury markets, which are for the most part saturated in too much inventory and not enough buyers. Time will tell of course how true this will be.
When it comes to the mid-range and low-income markets (usually considered 500k and under) what matters much more is how business and growth are doing right here in the valley.

Prop 206:

 Amidst all the drama of the presidential election, many may not have noticed the increase in minimum wage which passed here in Arizona, and by an overwhelming margin.  Like many things in politics, opinions are sharply divided over the effects that this will have.  If as some surmise, it causes a loss in jobs at the low end, you would probably see a small opening up of inventory on low-income rentals, as more folks move back in with family or with friends.


Many haven’t thought through the consequences of what a mass deportation would look like here in Arizona.  As far as I can tell based on online research, there is something like 500,000+ undocumented immigrants living here.  This is as of a 2009 study I found, who knows what it is now.  If there was some sort of mass deportation what you would have is a huge opening of the low-income housing market.  Inventory would probably sky-rocket and the demand would drop, resulting in a super buyer’s market and possibly decreasing prices.
Time will tell if that actually ends up happening.
Phoenix Rising – Latest Cash Shiller Report Shows Phoenix #1 in Month Over Month Appreciation

Phoenix Rising – Latest Cash Shiller Report Shows Phoenix #1 in Month Over Month Appreciation

     The story goes that Jack Swilling, a confederate veteran of the civil war, while traveling through the Salt River Valley in 1867, saw a potential spot for farming. He formed a community that same year about 4 miles east of our present city Phoenix. Lord Darrell Duppa, one of the original settlers in Swilling’s party suggested the name “Phoenix.” It stuck.
     According to ancient mythology there is a long-lived bird that is cyclically regenerated or reborn, known as the Phoenix. Associated with the Sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor.
A phoenix depicted in a book of legendary creatures by 

FJ Bertuch (1747-1822)

     Was this a highly prophetic name given to our illustrious city? Over the decades our community has certainly had more than its fair share of real estate ups and downs where home values would crash and burn followed by catapultic value rises.  Are we in the midst of a catapultic rising phase once again?
     First, the numbers. Case-Schiller’s most recent 20 city home price index shows that for the 3-month period ending August 2016, Portland (11.7%) and Seattle (11.4%) have had double digit appreciation compared with August of 2015. Okay, no surprise there. Nor is it a surprise that Phoenix is in the middle of the pack with a 5.2% annual rise. We’ve been reporting for months now that we’ve been experiencing a balanced, non-bubble market.
     But what is of interest is that Phoenix has risen to the top of all cities for its month to month appreciation (5.9%) up from 5.5% in July.
     Bubble time for Phoenix? Not here, not now. Sustained growth? I think so. For the first time in decades, Phoenix will continue to grow and prosper. Our current population growth is being fueled by folks who want to live here. Aging boomers and ‘finally getting smart’ millennials want to live here. 
     We are currently in our 5th year of rising values but still have not met the peak of $184.00 per square foot that occurred back in summer of 2006. The valley currently sits at $140 psf – and rising!
How to Flip a Fixer-Upper into Your Dream Home

How to Flip a Fixer-Upper into Your Dream Home

Recently clients of ours went searching for their forever home.  We saw many potentials over the course of their search and they were really torn between buying a home that was move-in-ready or buying one that needed their TLC.

Ultimately, they chose a home in an area they loved, with great bones, much more elbow room, but that did in fact need their tender loving care.  They were kind enough to allow us to take some before and afters (and a few in-betweens) so our readers could see the transformation!  (Please excuse the poor quality of my camera phone!)

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A few tips for those thinking about doing something similar

Consider Hiring a Designer

While it might seem like an unnecessary cost to some, there are many advantages in hiring a designer for your flip.

For one thing, a designer is going to handle all of the logistics.  They have lists of reliable contractors of all types that they will pull together which will set your mind at ease about finding quality and honest workman not to mention the hassle of scheduling.

The truth is that a designer is going to help you see things you couldn’t see yourself, to help give you vision.  I would bring the designer in before you even write an offer!


Count the Cost!

You need to know the bottom line.  That’s another plug for hiring a designer because they are going to be able to nail down bids from all the different types of contractors left or right in a timely fashion.

Don’t forget to have a good contingency fund between 5-10 grand depending on what the home is worth and what you want to do.  I’ve never heard of a flip that didn’t come with a few surprises.  If your smart with these steps, you can not only be living in your dream home, but build some instant equity as well!


Count the Emotional Cost too!

The popular flipping shows out there squeeze months of stress into 22 minutes of tv time.  While it can be rewarding, fun, and even lucrative, flipping your next purchase adds stress and anxiety to a process that is already stressful as is.  Don’t do it unless you understand the toll!

The Things Realtors See – A Home for the Birds!

The Things Realtors See – A Home for the Birds!

In over 40 years of selling residential real estate, I think that I’ve pretty much seen it all. And then, a new listing comes up where I realize, I was dead wrong. This happened to me just this last Friday. I’ll just call this listing, “the Bird House.”

But first a shameless plug for a terrific listing I have near “the bird house,” as these clients of mine were the ones who asked me about the bird house. My listing (1902 E. Tamar – See pics below) is on 4.38 gorgeous elevated acres in North Phoenix. It can be split into additional parcels or just kept as a private preserve area. Terrific views. The house is one of the best built homes I’ve seen and includes 14″ thick walls with an open great-room floor-plan. Very energy efficient. Click on the picture below to get more info.

Anyway, back to “the bird house.” The listing, by a fellow HomeSmart professional, states in the remarks section of the listing, “NO ACCESS TO INSIDE OF HOUSE!!! DO NOT ENTER HOUSE!!” Further instructions say to Realtors, “DO NOT SEND CLIENTS BY THEMSELVES AND DO NOT GO IN HOUSE PLEASE!!! ACCESS AT YOUR OWN RISK.” Now, being a member of the human race, that screams out to me, “Come on in!” So Jonathan and I drove out to the home near the Desert Hills community. The gate is padlocked, but we get in via Realtor access. Walking up to the home, which was built in 1988, there were dozens of bird cages sitting outside the home. Tremendous physical damage is evident everywhere we looked.


Then we hear cooing birds as we walk in the open front door. And there’s seemingly tons of pigeon poop plopped everywhere and filth on steroids. To say it was gross would be 2016’s understatement of the year.

There is a very long barn-like structure in the back that we did not dare venture in. Dozens of stalls, the size of horse stalls were screened in, no doubt housing more birds, perhaps exotic ones. More gross.

There’s much more to the visual and aromatic. We’ve taken a few pics for you. Oh yea, the house was appraised and sold in a day for $335,000 cash. It also sits on nearly 5 acres. The appraisal estimated $45,000 for demolition of all structures

And someone lived here.

Anyone want to see my Tamar listing? 


Is Scottsdale Going to the Dogs?

Is Scottsdale Going to the Dogs?

A recent article from Realtor.com, our national trade organization, revealed that Americans love their pets, and especially their dogs, and even more so their dogs in Scottsdale, Arizona. Scottsdale was named one of the top ten (4th place) cities in the country for dog ownership.http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/top-10-cities-for-dog-lovers/

More and more clients these days are asking where the nearest dog park is in the community they’re considering buying into. The neighborhood where I live seems to annually request the HOA to provide a dog park even though there are miles upon miles of already existing grass and walking paths.

According to www.HumaneSociety.org, a 2015-2016 survey reported:

  • There are 78,000,000 dogs in the U.S.
  • 44% of all homes have at least one dog
  • 50% of all pet owners own small dogs
  • 66.7% of dog owners consider their dogs to be family members
  • $1436 is the average amount spent on veterinary care per year
  • 69% of Scottsdale homes have at least one dog

Referring to Scottsdale, the article shared this about the city as it relates to dogs:

  • This wealthy suburb of Phoenix has no shortage of retirees who can spend all day with Fido alfresco. The city boasts a long list of restaurants and cafes with extensive outdoor dining for you and your furball, along with 20 bars where dogs can sit alongside your bar stool. (Don’t knock it if you haven’t tried it.)
  • There’s also an abundance of pet shops that cater to petite dogs. Check out miniature frilly dresses and collars at Mackie’s Parlour, or Louis Vuitton knockoff dog toys, plush sports car-shaped dog beds, and rhinestone collars at  

Oh My Dog. But please don’t go overboard-dogs embarrass easily.

Buyer beware about this! Some communities limit the number and/or size of dogs. That information is found in the CC&R’s (neighborhood rules) and is an important read even if you don’t own pets. Some clients of ours who have three dogs recently sold their home in McCormick Ranch, and purchased a home a little further north in a community that limited the number of pets to two. Our clients spoke in person with the President of the HOA about their three, and they were given approval. That’s good, because that rule could have been the proverbial deal killer.


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