Softness Beginning in the Phoenix and Scottsdale Rental Market?

Softness Beginning in the Phoenix and Scottsdale Rental Market?

We knew it was bound to happen, the question was when? It’s looking like the when is now! The rental market is showing signs of slow-down. If we compare our rental market with 2021 at this time, we see the following supply changes occurring as reported by the Cromford Report:

  • single-family detached actives have increased by 99%
  • apartment actives have increased by 69%
  • townhouse actives have increased by 15%

Single-family detached (SFD) rentals are in much greater supply in 2022 and are currently 71% of all rental listings in the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS). At the same point in 2021 they were only 51% of rental listings. (Caveat: The ARMLS numbers represented here are not the entire market, however they do provide a fairly accurate picture of the whole market)

Cromford is also seeing the average asking price for single family detached rentals drop in the last year where the SFD is now averaging $1.61 per square foot (PSF). It was $1.97 this time last year having peaked at $2.09 per month previously.

Apartment average rents are currently at $2.16 PSF per month. For all types of condos, townhomes, and apartments (attached), the average asking price is currently $2.02 PSF per month. It was $1.90 this time last year.

Interestingly, the drop in rental prices is NOT happening to townhomes. In fact they have been increasing. They also remain in short supply. Apartment rents have also increased but supply is much better than a year ago. The appeal of townhomes for renters and investors is due to a at least a few factors:

  • Townhomes are attached like condos and apartments, but often with just 2-4 units being attached providing better privacy – more or less.
  • Many townhomes provide garages. Condos and apartments not so much.
  • Town home communities are more often gated

The big changes are in single-family rentals where supply has doubled over twelve months and the average rent asked has declined by 18%. SFD’s are actually less expensive to rent PSF, so if a prospective renter needs more space, they will get more for the money with an SFD.

Currently there is a large number of attached homes being built in Phoenix Metro. There is always a danger of overbuilding and we’ve certainly seen that in our past. Developers are no doubt seriously eyeing our market to discern future expansion (or not).

So today, while it’s still called today, there is market movement favoring renters. Now if the same thing could only be said for our first time home-buyers.

Better Days Ahead for Scottsdale and Phoenix Buyers?

Better Days Ahead for Scottsdale and Phoenix Buyers?

March numbers are showing continued huge strength in appreciation, but also possible trends that could slow the market. First, the stats:

  • Active Listings: 5,051 vs 4,088 last year – up 23.6% – and up 10.1% from 4,588 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 11,620 vs 12,575 last year – down 7.6% – and down 3.6% vs 12,050 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 10,123 vs 10,398 last year – down 2.6% – but up 26.6% from 7,998 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $291 versus $232 last year – up 25% – and up 2.3% from $285 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $456,000 versus $358,250 last year – up 27.3% – and up 2.5% from $445,000 last month

First, let’s look at our still hugely deficient listing inventory. Active (current) listings are up 24% (all numbers rounded) from one year ago and up 10% from last month – positive news for buyers! I’m not sure, however, how much help at this point this will be for our buyers, since mortgage rates are near 5%. Click here to read a great NPR article about it.

As expected, sales are slowing – somewhat. Under contract listings are down near 8% from last year, and down 3.6% from last month.

Sales spiked last month versus February, up near 27%, but have decreased versus last year by nearly 3%.

Crazy price increases continue. The monthly average sales price per square foot (PSF) is now at $291, compared with $232 just one year ago – a 25% rise. Of particular note is that the PSF is up from $285 just last month – a 2.3% rise. The Monthly Median has risen to $456,000 – a 27% increase from last year and up 2.5% from last month.

The huge bounce in mortgage rates these past few months (now near 5%) is combining with the higher priced inventory is eliminating MANY buyers from the market, especially the newbies. In fact, with all the purchases and owner refi’s over the past three years, there will be little incentive for homeowners to sell. There’s not much upside financially for them.

In fact, with all the purchases and owner refi’s over the past three years, there will be little incentive for homeowners to sell. There’s not much upside financially for them.

There also seems to be a possible turn in rentals. Rent prices are now decreasing, though not significantly. Average asking lease prices have fallen also, which is a leading indicator of closed rental prices.

Personally, I don’t see any major changes in pricing, either for sales or rentals. This was foreseen when we projected ahead of what the sales year has in store. We’re on the money regarding market slowing, but prices are still high. Is this a result of continued cash-buying investor groups?

Another story for another Monday!

Pray for Ukraine!

North Scottsdale Real Estate Friday Focus: 85259

North Scottsdale Real Estate Friday Focus: 85259

Some folks may wonder why we include the 85259-zip code in North Scottsdale? The same folks rightly ask the question about 85254, 85258, and 85260 as well? After all, if you look at the long (32 miles) city of Scottsdale, you’d see it to be more central or South Central than north.

It was not too long in Scottsdale’s past (1960’s) that if you lived around Shea Blvd, that was considered “nose-bleed” country. Even McCormick Ranch (85258) was considered pretty far north from Old Town.

So the answer seems to be that for many of us who have been here for awhile, these zip code communities were a part of North Scottsdale.

85259 Zip Code contains numerous upscale communities, such as Stonegate, The Ancala Country Club, portions of Scottsdale Ranch, Scottsdale Mountain, Cactus Gates, Rancho Trinidad, Hidden Hills, and Bella Montagna.

Mountain and City light views, terrific convenience to recreation, shopping, golf, and health facilities abound. In fact, some folks refer to the Shea Blvd N/S dividing line as the “Medical Mile” with Honor hospital and the Mayo clinic plus hundreds of all types of medical offices within a few miles.

Schools are excellent in the 85259 community which includes Desert Mountain High and Middle public school. One of the highest rated schools in the country is the Basis Charter School encompassing grades 5-12. Anasazi Elementary is another excellent choice.

As of the fall of 2020, 91 homes were listed for sale at an average list price of $1.32M. Pending listings average list prices were $860,000, while closed sales over the past 6 months averaged $842,000.

Real estate as of October 2nd, 2020

Today            Last Month              Last Year       1 Year Change

Active Listings:                                91                   98                               172                 -47%

Pending Listings                              35                   33                               25                   +40%

Sales Per Month                             44                   48                               46                   -04%

Sales Per Year                                  499                 501                             523                 -05%

Months of Supply                          2.1                  2.0                              3.7                  -1.6 Months

Appreciation – Median*              12%                09%                            05%                +07%

Average Price – Sales**                $860              $845K                         $798K            +08%

Median Price – Sales***              $770K            $750K                        $685K             +12%

*Annual Median

**Annual Average

***Annual Median

Considering Buying or Selling in North Scottsdale or the Northeast Valley. Give Mike a call at 602.689.3100 or send an email to: [email protected]

North Scottsdale Real Estate Advisory – Friday Focus: 85258 Zip Code

North Scottsdale Real Estate Advisory – Friday Focus: 85258 Zip Code

Do you like water? Lakes? Golf? Mountain views? If so, then this North Scottsdale zip code (85258) is for you.

The 85258 zip code was primarily built around several key and lush massive planned unit developments, with nationally acclaimed McCormick Ranch starting things off in the 1970’s. Lush greenbelts, lakes, lots of foliage, golf, retail shopping and dining, and still close to the popular Downtown (Old Town) this community struck popularity pay dirt. Partially vaulted ceilings, and step-down living rooms were all the rage.

McCormick Ranch is located west of the Loop #101, whereas Scottsdale Ranch is built east of the #101.

Seeing the amazing success with McCormick Ranch, Scottsdale Ranch next appeared on the scene during the 1980’s. Many lakeside developments grew up in Scottsdale. Wide streets and sidewalks became an absolute sporting mecca for walkers, joggers, and cyclists. Combined with McCormick Ranch, these bike/walking paths from Scottsdale Ranch and McCormick Ranch weave all the way down near Tempe, without having to cross a major road. Generous under road tunnels dot the landscape. It’s amazing.

Following the “Ranch” tradition, palatial Gainey Ranch sprung up in the 90’s. Gainey is a first-class resort-like gated community developed west of Hayden Road. Preferred by many elites, especially local professional sports icons, Gainey Ranch tempts with privacy, greenery, lakes, golf, tennis, etc. The Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort and Spa is located within Gainey Ranch.


North Scottsdale Median Price Rose 10% in One Month?!

North Scottsdale Median Price Rose 10% in One Month?!

The North Scottsdale real estate market is killing it! The seven zip codes which comprise North Scottsdale are currently showing a monthly median sales price of $715,000. One month ago, the median sales price was $650,000. This is a median increase of $65,000 in one month! Yes, you heard me correctly, the North Scottsdale median sales price rose $65,000 – 10% – in one month.

Listing inventory in North Scottsdale has plummeted. One year ago, North Scottsdale home inventory was at 1409. This year, there are only 1044 homes currently for sale in North Scottsdale – a 26% drop!

How about North Scottsdale rentals? Rising to record lease prices, North Scottsdale home rental prices just hit $1.45 per square foot (psf) this September. This is .06 cents psf higher since last month and a rise of .17 cents psf in one year – a 13% rental price increase.

North Scottsdale Friday Focus – 85254 Market Update

North Scottsdale Friday Focus – 85254 Market Update

The 85254 zip code is one of North Scottsdale’s great central locations, however there is a not-so-dirty little secret about what’s known as the “magical zip code.” The 85254 zip is not in Scottsdale but is in the City of Phoenix and includes Phoenix city services. And the school district? It’s in the Paradise Valley School District. So why is it called Scottsdale? Mailing only. Talk to the postal service.

All of that doesn’t change what a cool place it is for many who call it home.

It’s also exploding in value, with prices up 22% in one year! The supply of homes for sale has dropped in half from 170 one year ago to 112 this month – a 34% inventory drop.

Today Last Month Last Year 1 Year Change
Active Listings: 112 117 170 -34%
Pending Listings 40 37 52 -23%
Sales Per Month 84 110 79 +06%
Sales Per Year 854 849 807 +06%
Months of Supply 1.3 1.1 2.2 -41%
Appreciation – Median* 22% 15% 11% +100%
Average Price – Sales** $665K $606K $543K +22%
Median Price – Sales*** $627K $593K $515K +22%

*Monthly Median

**Monthly Average

***Monthly Median

All Data courtesy of the Cromford Report

Considering Buying or Selling in North Scottsdale or the Northeast Valley. Give Mike a call at 602.689.3100 or send an email to: [email protected]

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