by MICHAEL BODEEN | Nov 7, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News, Uncategorized
|
Good news for Scottsdale’s snow birds! According to this past Saturday’s Phoenix Republic insert (AZ Republic) the Climate Prediction’s Center’s outlook calls for a “warm, dry winter for the Southwest, including the Phoenix metro area. At the same time our country’s neighbor to the north via The Canadian Farmer’s Almanac, the Climate Prediction Center, and La Nina forecasts are all predicting a cold winter for Canada. This chilly forecast could of course include our upper Midwest states such as Minnesota and North Dakota.
Oh, and by the way, do you think we might get a visitor bounce from Cubby-land to begin their defense of the crown during March spring training? Chris, a wonderful client and friend took me out to see my first Cubs game at their new Mesa ballpark last spring. It was a blast! Grab some tickets as soon as they’re announced.
Baseball is in a renaissance that we haven’t seen in decades. Thank you, Chicago, and Cleveland. Baseball may yet reclaim the title America’s past-time! And the baseball capital of the winter/spring world just happens to be — Phoenix, Arizona!
Okay, that’s a pretty good case for an increase in Snowbird population,this winter, but will that translate into increased sales? Rentals?
I say yes to both. In fact I’ll go out on a limb to say that it will be the best winter for buying AND leasing that we’ve had in years. This could mean a run on inventory which could very well cause a spike in pricing in the moderate price range of $250k to $500,000. I also think we’ll see a spike in number and price in “Executive Leases” which are luxury homes being leased for a minimum of 12 months.
And I don’t believe Tuesday’s election plays any real significant part in short term sales numbers regardless of who wins. My gut feeling is we’re starting a strong move forward in AZ housing.
|
|
October sales were very strong across the valley compared to last year. Looking at various cities and their sales transactions in the public records for this past October, we see the following growths over 2015:
|
City
|
Oct 2015 Sales
|
Oct 2016 Sales
|
Change
|
|
Goodyear
|
189
|
267
|
+41.3%
|
|
Sun City
|
143
|
198
|
+38.5%
|
|
Paradise Valley
|
30
|
38
|
+26.7%
|
|
Chandler
|
485
|
606
|
+24.9%
|
|
Gilbert
|
506
|
627
|
+23.9%
|
|
Cave Creek
|
79
|
96
|
+21.5%
|
|
Tolleson
|
76
|
92
|
+21.1%
|
|
Buckeye
|
196
|
231
|
+17.9%
|
|
Mesa
|
819
|
964
|
+17.7%
|
|
Peoria
|
408
|
472
|
+15.7%
|
|
Avondale
|
134
|
154
|
+14.9%
|
|
Tempe
|
196
|
223
|
+13.8%
|
|
Glendale
|
406
|
461
|
+13.5%
|
|
Surprise
|
298
|
337
|
+13.1%
|
|
Phoenix
|
2144
|
2241
|
+4.5%
|
|
Scottsdale
|
698
|
729
|
+4.4%
|
|
Sun City West
|
112
|
112
|
flat
|
|
Queen Creek
|
160
|
145
|
-9.4%
|
*All data courtesy of the Cromford Report |
|
|
|
|
by JONATHAN BODEEN | Oct 31, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News
The story goes that Jack Swilling, a confederate veteran of the civil war, while traveling through the Salt River Valley in 1867, saw a potential spot for farming. He formed a community that same year about 4 miles east of our present city Phoenix. Lord Darrell Duppa, one of the original settlers in Swilling’s party suggested the name “Phoenix.” It stuck.
According to ancient mythology there is a long-lived bird that is cyclically regenerated or reborn, known as the Phoenix. Associated with the Sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor.
A phoenix depicted in a book of legendary creatures by
FJ Bertuch (1747-1822)
Was this a highly prophetic name given to our illustrious city? Over the decades our community has certainly had more than its fair share of real estate ups and downs where home values would crash and burn followed by catapultic value rises. Are we in the midst of a catapultic rising phase once again?
First, the numbers. Case-Schiller’s most recent 20 city home price index shows that for the 3-month period ending August 2016, Portland (11.7%) and Seattle (11.4%) have had double digit appreciation compared with August of 2015. Okay, no surprise there. Nor is it a surprise that Phoenix is in the middle of the pack with a 5.2% annual rise. We’ve been reporting for months now that we’ve been experiencing a balanced, non-bubble market.
But what is of interest is that Phoenix has risen to the top of all cities for its month to month appreciation (5.9%) up from 5.5% in July.
Bubble time for Phoenix? Not here, not now. Sustained growth? I think so. For the first time in decades, Phoenix will continue to grow and prosper. Our current population growth is being fueled by folks who want to live here. Aging boomers and ‘finally getting smart’ millennials want to live here.
We are currently in our 5th year of rising values but still have not met the peak of $184.00 per square foot that occurred back in summer of 2006. The valley currently sits at $140 psf – and rising!
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Oct 24, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog
The September 2016 Real Estate numbers are in revealing a market that “as a whole” is healthy. The big takeaway for me is the strength of new home sales which are up almost 30% from last year.
Normal resales are up 5.8% over last year while distressed single family sales (short sales, REO’s and foreclosures) dropped 23% – another very healthy economic sign!
Another interesting stat shows condo/townhome sales prices rising 8.7% versus last year, and outpacing single family detached (up 6.7%).
The Bullet List:
- Normal single family resales were up 5.8% compared with September 2015
- New single family homes were up 29.7%
- Distressed single family sales were down 23%
- Total dollar volume increased by 15.4% for single family homes
- Total dollar volume increased by 19.3% for condo / townhouses
- Average price per sq. ft. for single family homes grew 6.7% to $140.29
- Average price per sq. ft. for condo / townhouses grew 8.7% to $146.71
A commonly asked question I’m asked over the years is, “What’s a better investment to consider buying? Single Family Detached (SFD) or Condo/Townhouse? Or, which investment will appreciate more? Gosh darn, that old crystal ball question again.
If you only viewed this month’s sales numbers, the answer might look like condo/townhouse. But there’s a lot more to this question that needs clarifying. Over the long haul single family detached homes have increased in value more. But as an investment, one has to figure in the expense side of things. The initial cost of a single family home is higher, therefore the cost of money is higher, the out of pocket expenses such as roof, A/C, remodeling, are usually greater.
The condo/townhome has monthly HOA fees which irritate a lot of folks, but in the long haul may well be less than total expenses for an SFD.
First, do you know the difference between a townhome and a condo? Simply speaking think “apartment” when referring to a condo. A townhome generally will be side by side, usually with a first floor garage, and the living area above so that you won’t have folks living over or under you, which is perhaps the biggest complaint about apartment living. A townhome will often have a number of amenities that are factored into the hoa monthlies. Demand is greatest for townhomes vs condos.
Secondly, the increasing price for condo/townhomes makes sense as many of the “new home” purchases are condo/townhomes. As an investment, if I were only going to have a few rentals, I personally like the townhouse concept. I like that the communities are usually gated, most people (buyers and renters) want a garage, all the exterior maintenance is done by the association, and it often includes nice amenities.
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Oct 17, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, North Scottsdale Schools, Real Estate News, Relocation
We are often asked by prospective home buyers the question, “How are the schools in this neighborhood, or district?” The perception of good or bad schools can play a significant role for a family with school aged children. The question of real estate value applies to everyone. One may not have kids, but make no mistake, a bad or good school label could affect real estate values.
The short answer is that there is no short answer. This article is not meant to be an end all discussion of how to locate the right school for your kids, but to evoke some thought on the subject.
If you’re considering a particular state to relocate to based on schools, you would find out that Arizona does not have a stellar education reputation. You would discover that it spends far less money per student than most states in our public schools. If you were to dig deeper, however,
you would also discover that Arizona happens to be home to some of the best schools in the country – that’s right, the USA. In fact, U.S. News and World Report ranked 3 Arizona Basis Charter schools in the top ten national (
usnews.com Article) . Basis wasfounded in Tucson in 1998 by Michael Block, Ph.D. and Olga Block, Ph.D. They decided to open a school that would educate students at an internationally competitive level. For more information on charter schools, check out:
http://www.azed.gov/charter-schools/ Upon further examination you would find that there are excellent public schools interspersed throughout our communities. I recommend folks check out
http://www.GreatSchools.org which supplies an amazing amount of school information including test scores, per student financial expenditures, school report cards, and parent comments. One note of caution however, when comparing test scores, understand that MANY of our under performing schools are in areas where there is a large non-English speaking child population, but for some of those schools, there was definite and measured student score improvement as they moved up in grade levels. I would have to say those schools were a success. You may want to check out this link:
http://www.greatschools.org/gk/videos/school-test-scores-video/ regarding school test scores. The problem that out of area prospective buyers have is where do they begin? Well again, I’d start with:
http://www.GreatSchools.org. From there, you can then do further research and even visit the schools you’re considering. Engage in school chat rooms too. Talk to teachers. It takes time to research, I know. But what better investment can you think of?
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Oct 3, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News
Consistency in Phoenix – Who Would Guess?
Back in February of this year, we reported that our local Phoenix Metro residential real estate market, as a whole, was strong and balanced. Currently, when we remain “in balance,” at least when looking at the Valley as a whole. The story changes a little bit of course when you break down the market by price. $500k and up for example is generally dreary for sellers, where as the $250k and under sellers are swimming in buyers begging for their homes. For a market that was known for radical highs and lows this past decade, our continued consistency is remarkable.
From a Realtor perspective, the market has been strongly balanced for the past 3 years with a few periodic dips and rises, but with consistent annual appreciation. This appreciation has enabled the new home market to strengthen as well giving buyers more choice in homes then we’ve had since the great recession.
The most recent market numbers:
- Active Listings: 20,153 versus 20,024 last year – up 0.6% – and up 5.0% from 19,186 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,065 versus 5,789 last year – up 4.8% – but down 4.2% from 6,331 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 10,013 versus 9,003 last year – up 11.2% – but down 3.0% from 10,318 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,390 versus 7,003 last year – up 5.5% – but down 7.1% from 7,952 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $141.92 versus $133.44 last year – up 6.4% – and up 2.2% from $138.81 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $230,000 versus $213,000 last year – up 8.0% – and up 1.0% from $227,800 last month
There is much chatter these days about economic changes that will be happening following the election. Some buyers and sellers have put off buying and selling until January. The best change is that as a country we can hopefully move on from the political drama that we’re seeing moment by moment. Wouldn’t it be refreshing to say that our country was strong and balanced rather than weak and divided?
by JONATHAN BODEEN | Aug 29, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Real Estate News
Recently clients of ours went searching for their forever home. We saw many potentials over the course of their search and they were really torn between buying a home that was move-in-ready or buying one that needed their TLC.
Ultimately, they chose a home in an area they loved, with great bones, much more elbow room, but that did in fact need their tender loving care. They were kind enough to allow us to take some before and afters (and a few in-betweens) so our readers could see the transformation! (Please excuse the poor quality of my camera phone!)
A few tips for those thinking about doing something similar
Consider Hiring a Designer
While it might seem like an unnecessary cost to some, there are many advantages in hiring a designer for your flip.
For one thing, a designer is going to handle all of the logistics. They have lists of reliable contractors of all types that they will pull together which will set your mind at ease about finding quality and honest workman not to mention the hassle of scheduling.
The truth is that a designer is going to help you see things you couldn’t see yourself, to help give you vision. I would bring the designer in before you even write an offer!
Count the Cost!
You need to know the bottom line. That’s another plug for hiring a designer because they are going to be able to nail down bids from all the different types of contractors left or right in a timely fashion.
Don’t forget to have a good contingency fund between 5-10 grand depending on what the home is worth and what you want to do. I’ve never heard of a flip that didn’t come with a few surprises. If your smart with these steps, you can not only be living in your dream home, but build some instant equity as well!
Count the Emotional Cost too!
The popular flipping shows out there squeeze months of stress into 22 minutes of tv time. While it can be rewarding, fun, and even lucrative, flipping your next purchase adds stress and anxiety to a process that is already stressful as is. Don’t do it unless you understand the toll!
