Reverse Mortgages. A Risk? A Strategy? Or a Risky Strategy?!

Well, now that I’ve turned 62, more senior financial options are presenting themselves to me even besides being able to take Social Security payments, though I won’t just presently. Since this is a real estate column, I’ll discuss one of these options as it relates to your home sweet home; the “Reverse Mortgage.”

Many seniors today own their homes free and clear or very nearly free and clear. Quite a few of them are also living on Social Security alone, or close to it. By leveraging some of their home equity to receive monthly payments, their quality of life could substantially improve. Using their equity in that way however, is also one of the downsides as there could be less inheritance for family members down the line.

Reverse Mortgages have been around since the 80’s and originally they did not have such a great reputation. Nowadays most folk don’t even know they exist. If they knew more about them, they might want to consider checking into the program. It has its advantages. But first,what is a Reverse Mortgage?

A reverse mortgage is a type of home equity loan for homeowners who are 62 or over. It does not require monthly mortgage payments. The loan is repaid after the borrower moves out or dies.  It is also known as a home equity conversion mortgage, or HECM. People who can benefit from a reverse mortgage include people that:

  • Don’t plan to move.
  • Can afford the cost of maintaining their home.
  • Want to access the equity in their home to supplement their income or have money available for a rainy day.

To qualify, borrowers have to be at least 62, own their home outright or carry a mortgage small enough to be paid off by the proceeds. There are no income or credit qualifications, although homeowners are responsible for paying the annual taxes, property insurance and maintenance. No loans have to be repaid until the owners move or die, in which case the bank takes its share and anything left goes to the heirs. However, if the owner fails to pay insurance and property taxes, the reverse mortgage is deemed in default and the owner is in danger of foreclosure.

Disclosures and protections are much better than they were back in the 80’s. Like any financial product, it’s a good idea to get wise counsel from an attorney, family member or trusted friend. As always, the best advice often comes from someone who isn’t financially remunerated from their advice.

To learn more about Reverse Mortgages and their benefits and risks, check these links:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/retirement/basics-of-reverse-mortgages-1.aspx#ixzz46sLog12J

http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUDsrc=/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/rmtopten

http://www.aarp.org/money/credit-loans-debt/info-04-2013/are-reverse-mortgages-helpful.html

http://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/consumer-advisory-dont-be-misled-by-reverse-mortgage-advertising/

Buyer Desire for More “Move-in Ready” Homes

When my family relocated to the Valley in 1994, it was a hot new-home sales market. North Scottsdale in particular was building incredible communities such as Grayhawk, McDowell Mountain Ranch, Scottsdale Mountain, Scottsdale Ranch ad infinitum. These brand new communities also provided top notch amenities, and certainly qualified as move-in ready at the time.

Fast forward 20 years. The communities are still a huge draw, but the new home newness has worn off. These upscale homeowners have discovered that roofs leak, heating and A/C units fail and need replacement, hot water heaters were probably replaced 2-3 times, and exteriors need attention/painting, again.  In short, they are no longer “move-in ready.”

And that’s just the outside.

Inside, that wonderful Corian hard surface countertop is still in great shape, just not what HGTV is serving up in 2016. Slab Granite is still popular, but 10 year old granite counters look like, well, 10 year old granite counters. Quartz (engineered stone) and newer designed slab granite are the new popularity winner. Even the wonderful Travertine tile that was so “in” ten years ago is now showing its age susceptibility. Hardwood (always in), and wood-design tiled floors are the new (old) kids on the block. Here’s a good website to check out:                      http://homerenovations.about.com/

It’s no accident that flippers are again starting to experience a lot of success in the Phoenix Metro real estate market. They are providing a finished product much in demand, especially with the rise and success of HGTV cable TV programs, such as “Love it or List It,” “Fixer Upper” and “Property Brothers” among others.

“Local sellers are taking quite the hit on price if they’re not updated, and if the updating was ten years ago, that’s ancient, design-wise. Buyers want new and now…”

Local sellers are taking quite the hit on price if they’re not move-in ready, and if the updating was ten years ago, that’s ancient, design-wise. Buyers want new and now, which is a big reason why new home sales are taking off again in the valley. Though many buyers would love to remodel new, very few buyers have the additional cash required to accomplish that expensive feat. In the financing heydays of not that long ago, but before the crash, banks were so happy when you closed on your home they gave you a $50,000 line of credit at closing which you didn’t even have to spend on your home. Hey, new car, vacations, you name it. Spend it. Well, no more.

For someone who has the financial resources, there are very good buying opportunities availing themselves right now, because these outdated but well located homes are not getting decent offers, if any at all. They’re lagging on the market if not priced aggressively. Prices for homes over $500,000 are slipping.

It’s now apparent that we are in a difficult market for homes that are not “move-in ready.” What’s an owner to do if they’re thinking of selling? Here are some options:

1)     Price it aggressively

2)     Rent it out if you’re relocating

3)     Stay, fix it up and enjoy it

4)     Stay, don’t fix it up and enjoy it

On the positive flip side, if your home is “move in ready” or fairly close to it, you will do well. Best neighborhood price, shorter market time.

Will Larger Expensive Homes Go Away?

As we’ve been reporting fairly regularly, price matters. The more expensive a home is, the fewer the buyers who can afford even looking at a home. Yes, this would seem to be obvious to even a casual market observer, but if that’s so, we could actually be in a long term national trend that’s worth pondering, at least for someone whose profession is to sell homes.

According to Stephen Kim of Barclays, and several other national analysts, ‘a long term trend is currently underway that theorizes that a wave of empty nesters is seeking to downsize, and now that the market has recovered from the crisis of 2006-2009 they are planning to do so in greater numbers. If a large number of boomers want to sell their suburban expensive home at the same time, we are going to see an imbalance of supply and demand. Today’s younger buyers appear to prefer density and proximity to urban facilities like shops, restaurants and entertainment. Far fewer of them are playing golf. In any case, can enough of the younger generations afford to live in suburban luxury even if they wanted to? The “boomers” are the ones with the equity. Gen X (early 60’s to early 80’s) was badly hit by the foreclosure wave and many of the millennials are still deciding what they want. We are seeing a rise in discretionary renting, where older homeowners sell their large homes and move into smaller rental homes. They appear to prefer upgrades and amenities to square footage. They are probably using their home equity as a source of funds to enjoy their retirement.’

” ‘…We are seeing a rise in discretionary renting…’ “

If the above is true, it certainly makes for interesting discussion. I think it could definitely have an impact on builders in their consideration of the size of homes to build in their communities. I think one possibility is that the large suburban luxury home becomes at least tri-generational that will fit boomers, boomer’s parents, X, and maybe even Y (1982-2004) generations. In order to accomplish that, major remodeling will need to happen, which will reinvigorate the construction industry from new to re-new.

In the Phoenix metro area, we’re currently seeing many active listings above $500,000 with (according to Michael Orr of the Cromford Report) an average sales price per square foot of $232, down from $237 in August. Unlike the median price, the more expensive homes affect the average sales price more than the median sales price. This, according to Orr, reflects the oversupply in the higher price ranges. If the higher priced homes don’t fetch higher dollars, owners may keep reducing the price to get it sold, or rent it out living in smaller accommodations or retirement oriented communities.

In order to afford the more expensive homes, higher incomes are needed, be it with those moving to Arizona, or higher paying jobs that are created in the state. We’ve certainly seen the latter occur, but not so much the former.

1st Quarter 2016 Real Estate Report

Though Jonathan and I like to provide market updates each week, the most accurate data comparisons are quarter vs quarter, and having just wrapped up the first quarter, we can now compare this 2016 first quarter with the first quarter of 2015, with much thanks to Michael Orr of the Cromford Report.

     For readers who would prefer the, “Just get to the bottom line Mike,” in a nutshell, the market is quite healthy except for the low end (hugely diminished inventory making it tough on entry level buyers) and the high end luxury (too much supply) which is great for our high end buyers who have lots of choices.

Now a little more detail: Market conditions remain very diverse with different price ranges in dramatically different situations. We will start with the overall numbers and then break them down to try to make more sense of what is going on.

Here are the basic ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) numbers for April 1, 2016 relative to April 1, 2015 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings: 22,493 versus 22,303 last year – up 0.9% – but down 0.4% from 22,587 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 12,427 versus 11,986 last year – up 3.7% – and up 5.6% from 11,773 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 8,548 versus 7,893 last year – up 8.3% – and up 46.6% from 5,829 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $138.96 vs $131.99 last year – up 5.3% – and down 1.7% from $141.09 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $215,000 versus $200,000 last year – up 7.5% – and up 1.4% from $212,000 last month

Sales, pending listings and under contract counts are all up from both last month and last year. This represents a firming of demand, which has brought the Cromford® Demand Index to a level we have not seen since June 2013, almost 3 years ago. This demand increase mainly affects the price range from $175,000 up to $600,000.

The supply of active listings is now higher than 12 months earlier for the first time since December 2014. However the Cromford® Supply Index has stopped rising and reached a plateau of 81.3, telling us we have a continued shortage of homes for sale compared with a normal market. This is deceptive for much of the market because almost all of the missing homes for sale are at the affordable end of the market below $175,000, where they are missing in huge numbers. The absence of the normal low end supply is not just in homes for sale. Affordable homes for rent are also extremely scarce. Entry level buyers and potential tenants are facing strong rises in price with no sign of relief.

So the low-end of the market has too little supply while the high end has too much. The mid-range is in the happiest “Goldilocks” state, with neither too little nor too much. Mid-range prices are stable and volumes are growing. Since the mid-range is by far the most important sector for the construction industry this is excellent news for most builders.

Despite the excessive supply, the high-end luxury market had a good first quarter from a volume perspective, with 79 closed sales for ARMLS listings priced over $2 million. This compares well with 68 in the first quarter of 2015 and we have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a first quarter with higher sales volume. The abundance of supply means there is plenty of choice for high-end luxury buyers and they are finding homes they like. For sellers it means they will need plenty of patience because of all the competition from other sellers. It also means they may have to settle for a lower contract price than they anticipated, especially if they are accustomed to looking up their home on Zillow.

The March Toward a Sellers’ Market

Over the last few weeks, some positive trends have given sellers’ encouragement.  If you follow our market index you’ll notice that over the last couple of market updates it has been ticking upwards, whereas over the last month or so it had been doing the opposite.

It seems as though the pace of new residential listings hitting the market has slowed, which is of course favorable to sellers as they have less competition to deal with.  At the same time, demand does not seem to be slowing.  This is particularly true in parts of the valley where the $250k and under homes are to be found.

Phoenix, Avondale, Glendale, Mesa, Gilbert, Surprise, Peoria, and Buckeye have all seen 2-7% rise toward a seller’s market over the last month.

Unfortunately, a few areas have seen the opposite trend and are actually, contrary to the metro area averages, pacing downward towards buyer markets, and quickly at that.  Tempe, Fountain Hills, and Paradise Valley have seen slopes of 11-16%.

All real estate is local, and the market is always moving.  For personalized info for your home in your neighborhood, we are always here!

 

Rental Prices Keep Moving Up… What’s a Renter To Do?

Rental demand continues to skyrocket and with it rental prices have risen dramatically. The average lease price for an active rental listing in the Arizona Regional MLS is now at $2087 per month, which is 11% higher than last year at this time. Recently there were only 2,140 home listings available on the MLS, a veritable dearth of inventory. The all-time low, per Michael Orr of The Cromford Report, was a couple weeks ago when there were just 2090 rental listings available.

To give perspective on this problem (yes, it’s a problem), back in 2008, there were close to 10,000 MLS rental listings available. The current count for rental listings is 27%  below last year and 45% less than 2014.

The average leased price per square foot is currently 79.1 cents psf, while last year it was 71.7 cents psf. That represents an annual increase of over 10%.

So, what’s a Renter To Do?

So, what’s a renter to do if they can’t buy a home yet and they don’t want to move? Can they avoid a landlord’s annual rent increase? Not always, but here’s our advice: Be Nice! Being a really good renter can sometimes soften a landlord when it comes time to consider raising rents.

I have some clients who began renting their Scottsdale investment property to some folks over 15 years ago. The same people are renting the house today with few rent increases because they were nice and my clients liked them.

What is my definition of nice?

1)    Be on time with your rent! (Yes, this is obvious, but it goes long in the goodwill department) If there is a month where there’s a rent shortfall, send what you can with an explanation of why, and that you’ll get caught up next week, or whenever. Some rent plus timely communication will go a long way for you. And then do it!

2)    Don’t sweat the small stuff! If you can fix something yourself at little to no cost, do it! Landlords don’t like renter phone calls for the minutia. Look at it this way, if your rent is $1500 per month and you’ve had to fork out $150 yourself over the past year on small stuff, that’s cheap considering a 5% rent increase (which totals $900).

3)    Keep your yard, especially your front yard looking great. Mow the lawn, pull the weeds, plant flowers. Hey, you’ll enjoy it too!

4)    Be a good neighbor. Often the neighbors are connected to the landlords. If you’re a renter who gets along with the neighbors, this may aid you come renegotiation time. And if not, your neighbors will really like you.

5)    Every three months or so, let your landlord or property manager know that you’re taking care of the place. Mail them a front yard photo of the house with a short note telling them you’re really enjoying their home. “Oh, and by the way, Mr./Mrs. Landlord, we took care of that leaky bathroom faucet — just needed a washer.”

You get the picture? And if you still can’t stop the annual rent price spiral? Get into the ownership side of the game. That’s where you need to be anyway.