Flip or Flop?!

Flip or Flop?!

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A number of clients and friends have asked me over the years my opinion on house flipping. “Can I actually make money doing it?” they ask. The short answer is yes you can. However, the process is NOT for the faint of heart.

By the way, what is house flipping? Very simply, flipping is (usually) the process of buying then quickly selling a home to make a profit. The idea is that one day the buyer acquires the property, quickly fixes it up, then puts it right back on the market (the flip) to sell. If you’re going to consider this endeavor, consider the following:

First, it’s imperative that the house you buy to flip is either priced well below the market and/or significantly distressed. It may take you weeks or months to find the right home to do it assuming you’re checking the market daily. You or your Realtor professional should have a good eye for the right property. As with all real estate value, location is hugely important.

From an investment standpoint, it’s best that you have cash or access to cash without having to get a new loan. There are hard money loans available (high interest – short term loans) but buyer beware, this is not recommended for most borrowers and the borrowing costs will eat into your profit.

Second, you need to know the current condition of the property you’re buying which may include more than just a typical home inspection. Make sure there are no hidden physical flaws. If you’re not well versed on the cost of renovating, it’s best that you have your contractor with you to examine the house as well. Actually it’s ALWAYS a good idea to have a second set of eyes to view your property. Also, make sure you get title insurance. Good title companies can also reduce these costs if you’re an investor and then you sell within 2-5 years. But you need to ask.

Once you’ve examined the house and know what you’re getting into, you need to determine the cost of flipping it which includes not just the physical remodeling, but also your closing and carrying costs (mortgage if any, taxes, insurance, hoa fees, utilities, title insurance, escrow fees, Realtor commission, etc). All of these costs and more go against your ultimate profit. You need to figure these costs for as long as it takes to sell the house. Your time estimate for this should be conservative.

Oh, and one other cost item that is often overlooked in the final analysis are income taxes. You will pay IRS based on your gain in the home. To defer any capital gain tax, you may want to consider doing an IRC 1031 tax deferred exchange if you’re planning on reinvesting in another investment property. (Have a chat with your CPA or tax attorney in these regards)

Once the home has been rehabbed, it’s ready to put on the market. The price you set should be a price that moves it quickly, even discounted against similar comparable sales. A home that sits on the market unsold will at a minimum be a drain on your profits. A quick sale for a very fair price will get you in and out and ready to embark on the next one!

The Bodeen Zip Line Report – Real Estate Market Update – North Scottsdale Zip Codes  and Surrounding Communities

The Bodeen Zip Line Report – Real Estate Market Update – North Scottsdale Zip Codes and Surrounding Communities

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85254

Home sales bottomed out in March of this year and have increased since then peaking in July. The magical 85254 zip code real estate market dropped back in July registering 66 sales, compared with 104 from one year ago. The median priced sale in July was $378,000, down from the same month last year.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         281                 vs        186

Pending Listings:     45                   vs        44

Sales Per Month:     66                   vs        104

Sales Per Year:         719                 vs        966

Median Price:           $378k            vs        $391k

 

85255

The median sales price in the very popular 85255 Zip Code for August 2014 was $633,000. This is an 8% drop over August of last year and a 1% drop from last month. Sales took an 8% drop from 91 sales last August 2013 to 74 last month – a 19% decrease.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         509                 vs        371

Pending Listings:     57                   vs        73

Sales Per Month:     74                   vs        91

Sales Per Year:         896                 vs        1045

Median Price:           $633k            vs        $685k

 

85258

Including The Ranches of McCormick, Scottsdale, and Gainey, listings are up 31% over last year, while the median price is showing an 11% gain over August 2014.

Currently                   Last Year

Active Listings:         146                 vs        111

Pending Listings:     18                   vs        23

Sales Per Month:     38                   vs        36

Sales Per Year:         379                 vs        413

Median Price:           $520k            vs        $480k

 

85259

Well, if we had an East Scottsdale, it would include the 85259 Zip which extends from 104th Street to Fountain Hills and has a portion of Scottsdale Ranch, south of Shea. These communities, mostly developed in the late 80’s and 90’s are very popular with year-rounders as well as snowbirds. The median price is up 12% from this time last year. Current listings are up 46% from last year – no supply problem here!

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         230                 vs        157

Pending Listings:     33                   vs        39

Sales Per Month:     38                   vs        43

Sales Per Year:         425                 vs        501

Median Price:           $595k            vs        $530k

 

85260

Perhaps North Scottsdale’s most central and (next to 85254) it’s most affordable zip code. The median price is pretty much mirroring August of last year, while sales were exactly the same from last year at 48 for the month.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         215                 vs        145

Pending Listings:     33                   vs        37

Sales Per Month:     48                   vs        48

Sales Per Year:         481                 vs        579

Median Price:           $423k            vs        $430k

 

85262

North Scottsdale’s most expensive and one of its nicest community’s, the median price is up slightly from last year. Pending listings are down slightly.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         352                 vs        308

Pending Listings:     35                   vs        40

Sales Per Month:     32                   vs        42

Sales Per Year:         420                 vs        467

Median Price:           $740k            vs        $735k

 

85266

These very popular and upscale communities which are the North of North Scottsdale, and which is home to the newest zip code being added to Scottsdale, has seen appreciation of almost 20% from one year ago. Pending sales and August sales are down slightly from one year ago.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         150                 vs        121

Pending Listings:     18                   vs        20

Sales Per Month:     21                   vs        25

Sales Per Year:         268                 vs        374

Median Price:           $735k            vs        $620k

 

85253

(Paradise Valley): The Valley’s most upscale, prestigious, and expensive town currently has 301 homes for sales compared to 258 one year ago. Closed and Pending sales in Paradise Valley are off slightly from one year ago.

The median sales price is currently $1,235,000 — virtually unchanged from one year ago.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         301                 vs        258

Pending Listings:     19                   vs        24

Sales Per Month:     22                   vs        30

Sales Per Year:         352                 vs        386

Median Price:           $1.235k         vs        $1.270k

 

85268

(Fountain Hills): Scottsdale’s most immediate eastern neighbor is accurately named for its mountain slopes and town fountain. For those wanting a small town feel, it doesn’t get much better than here.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         236                 vs        193

Pending Listings:     21                   vs        27

Sales Per Month:     32                   vs        43

Sales Per Year:         450                 vs        531

Median Price:           $369k            vs        $375k

 

85331

(Town of Cave Creek): Cave Creek has done a great job of standing strong in value. The median sales price of $424,000 for August is up 13% from 2013 and pending sales are about the same as last year too.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         292                 vs        243

Pending Listings:     58                   vs        59

Sales Per Month:     56                   vs        61

Sales Per Year:         609                 vs        697

Median Price:           $424k            vs        $375k

 

85377

(Carefree) The delightful and small town of Carefree is almost too small to accurately compare year to year stats. Having stated that, sales are way down from August 2013 at 60 – this compared to 115 one year ago. The median sales price brings one word to mind: BARGAIN!

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         74                   vs        63

Pending Listings:     4                      vs        4

Sales Per Month:     5                      vs        7

Sales Per Year:         69                   vs        115

Median Price:           $537k            vs        $850k

 

85086

(Anthem – North Phoenix) These communities remind me of North Scottsdale back in the mid 90’s – newer homes with beautiful mountain views in an unspoiled northern environment. These communities are the bargains of the valley. Prices are so affordable and only a 30 minute drive time to Sky Harbor Airport. Prices are unchanged from one year ago, with sales being down 26%.

Currently       vs        Last Year

Active Listings:         376                 vs        281

Pending Listings:     66                   vs        101

Sales Per Month:     96                   vs        122

Sales Per Year:         936                 vs        1273

Median Price:           $275k            vs        $275k

 

*With thanks to Michael Orr and the Cromford Report for the Statistics used.

A Short Sale Miracle

A Short Sale Miracle

(A Short Sale Miracle Part 2)

Jonathan and I had been working two short sale listings that were under contract. On one, we had lender approval from the two lenders who were on the loan. We had been working on this listing since December 2013. We only needed Freddie Mac approval. (Freddie Mac is the Public-Government run GSA which attempts to keep mortgage money flowing to lenders. It is government regulated)

After months and months of difficult and frustrating work on this Short Sale, Freddie Mac said “No, we’re not doing the deal. Your client (our seller) does not qualify as he doesn’t have a sufficient hardship to qualify!”

We asked the Servicer of the first loan if there was anyway we can make this deal work? No way! Once Freddie Mac says “no” it’s “no!”

So now, we need to let everyone know, including the buyer (buyer’s agent) that we’ve got no deal. Bummer!!! The buyer was not happy, though they were well aware that this deal was a crapshoot to begin with. Still, they had big plans for the home, like even getting married there.

Several weeks go by and the buyer calls me directly – not his agent. He pleads, “Is there not anything we can do to buy this house!?” No, we reply, it’s dead. Then he adds, “I’ll pay more $. “No, we reply, they closed the file and besides, the money was not the issue, but that the seller was not qualified – made too much money.”

At this point, to show him that we’re trying everything we know to make this work, I said, “Okay, I know a guy in our company who does more Short Sales than anyone in town. I’ll call him to see if he’s got a connection at Freddie Mac. I’ll let you know.”

I e-mail my cohort at HomeSmart and cry on his virtual shoulder. He replied, “Mike, Freddie Mac is absolutely the worst, but I’ve got the President’s #. You’re probably out of luck. I called the number once and it went to voice mail and this guy leaves three names and #’s of people to contact if he’s not answering. Here are the three names and #’s.”

I looked at the names and picked the first one thinking, ‘this is a waste of time.’ The phone rang and a live person answered the phone — without going to voice mail! I was so stunned I forgot why I’d called. “Is this Samantha?” I asked?” Yes, how can I help you?” I explained the situation to her while profusely worshipping her for being a live sympathetic ear. She said she would look at the file and call me right back. Oh, I’ve heard that before, I thought. But she did. I was flabbergasted.

Long story short, Samantha checked the file, put a manager on it, and said if we can add $3000 to this deal, we can make it go. The buyer agreed in a heartbeat.

We’re several weeks down the road since then but believe it or not, we’re putting this deal together. I wish I could say it was my knowledge, my persistence and my wherewithal to do all this, but it wasn’t. It was a persistent buyer, a helpful fellow HomeSmart Agent, and a genuine caring lady at Freddie Mac who did the impossible for us. Truly, this was short sale miracle.

(A Short Sale Miracle Part 2)

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Why I Do What I Do

You probably don’t know Judy, Alan or Ruth. But they are three of many reasons why I love my work.

Bittersweet! This past Thursday afternoon Judy and I sat down at the closing table of Magnus Title as Judy was signing the deed for the sale of her Scottsdale Ranch Lake home. She’s owned it for 14 years and has had good memories in this home, but to be honest, I was still somewhat surprised that she expressed some emotion as we hugged goodbye. But in the past few hours as I’ve thought about this house closing, I’ve been thinking about some of the reasons why I still love what I do. And it has to do with people like Judy.

I was referred to Judy by her longtime friend Alan Dube. Alan was a Realtor with me at Realty Executives a number of years back when I managed the office at Scottsdale Ranch. At 80+- years of age, though he looked 70ish, Alan no longer wanted to be active in real estate, but he would nonetheless come by the office regularly to chat with me and others – it was therapy for his loneliness. I was so happy that he took the initiative to get out of the house to see people. I would meet with him periodically at Barnes and Nobel on Shea and the 101 where he would faithfully, daily, read the paper at the Starbucks lounge.

From time to time, Alan would refer these wonderful clients (friends really) to me. Judy was one of those referrals. Judy has this way about her that brightens up my day. She knows how to make people laugh. That’s the thing about our profession — often, if not usually, our clients become our friends. If you’re able to talk about personal finances with someone, you will usually talk about anything under the sun. Whether it’s anger, joy, sadness or happiness — it’s an honest expression of our humanity.

Alan and I had gotten to know each other pretty well. He had had some heart problems for which he had been hospitalized at Scottsdale (Shea) Healthcare. Alan, the consummate sales pro that he was then made fast friends with one of the hospitals finest ER nurses, Ruth. Alan then referred Ruth to me to sell her South Scottsdale home and then Ruth bought a new home in Surprise. Ruth is one of the sweetest people I know. Her heart for her family, friends, and those she helps at the hospital is amazing. She has a sweet passion for people.

Shortly after Alan got out of the hospital he started to attend Scottsdale Bible Church near his home. He would later mention to me how much he looked forward to Sundays – it was the best day of the week as he was getting to know some of the people there. He told me how much he enjoyed the hymns and the Pastor’s message. Alan loved to talk about these spiritual matters as it was a somewhat new dimension for him later in his life.

Without exception, these friends of Alan loved him. He was in a word, adorable! I don’t think he was even 5’ tall, which perhaps led to his loveable nature. He would always speak his mind though – you could count on that. Sadly, Alan passed away in 2011. I miss him.

So yes, I am a Realtor Professional – have been for over 35 years. There were a number of other directions I could have taken and some directions I did take that perhaps I shouldn’t have, but each time, I came back to what I know and love. I have met so many Judy’s, Alan’s’ and Ruth’s and I’m a richer man for having known them.

Phoenix Market Update – or is it a Downdate?

Hey is that a new word? Nah, but it seems to fit better.

As is our custom, we want to continue providing you with the very best and latest real estate market data available, and we’ve got it, via Michael Orr’s Cromford report that the Bodeen Team subscribes to. By doing so, Orr gives us permission to share with our clients and friends this cutting edge information.

What we appreciate about Orr’s data is that it often transcends the MLS, which is very good information, but much of the research by Orr goes into the public records, which the MLS does not, unless specifically mentioned otherwise, such as Orr’s following report for July 2014:

Here are the basic MLS numbers for August 1, 2014 relative to August 1, 2013 for all areas & types:

The Bodeen market summation for those not wanting to be bored by the minutiae:

— Fewer Buyers. Fewer Contracts. Less Demand. Marginal Price Drop —

  • Active Listings: 23,900 versus 16,456 last year – up 45.2% – but down 2.2% from 24,440 last month
  • Pending Listings: 6,079 versus 7,755 last year – down 21.6% – and down 5.4% from 6,426 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,805 versus 8,076 last year – down 15.7% – and down 6.4% from 7,271 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $126.53 versus $119.65 last year – up 5.8% – but down 2.3% from $129.56 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $196,790 versus $185,000 last year – up 6.4% – but down 0.1% from $197,000 last month
  • 30 Year Mortgage Rate with 740+ Fico, 20% Down Payment: 4.00% (*Source: Bankrate.com)

Similar to last month, active listings rose 4.9% between July 1 and August 1 in 2013 but fell this year by 2.2%. This weakness in supply is very unusual, but is hardly getting noticed because it is overshadowed by the prolonged weakness in demand.

There are a few strong areas in this market where demand exceeds supply. These include Sun Lakes, Sun City West and Sun City. Clearly baby boomers are doing their bit. Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Gold Canyon have all improved their balance because supply has declined faster than the rest of the valley. In general, the higher you go in price range the better demand has held up.

All the talk of loan underwriters getting more flexible has not resulted in much change in buying patterns so far. Mortgage applications are low. Perhaps potential buyers assume they will either get turned down or have to provide too much documentation. Nationally too, purchase loan application rates remain weak according to the July 30 report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

All This is to say, “It remains a very opportune time to buy!”

Our Traditional Market Returns

Our Traditional Market Returns

The Phoenix Metro residential real estate market continues to slog along…supposedly. What’s interesting is that when we compare now with the past few years, the pace of the market has slowed because there are a lot less sales. Why are there a lot less sales? The main difference is that the investor gold rush has slowed. Now that the investor market has cooled its jets, what we’re left with is a “traditional” market.

 

So what does our traditional market look like? Fewer sales. Longer market times. Conservative annual appreciation rates. Oh, you mean like most of the rest of the country? As I’ve mentioned many times in the past, what most often has described the Phoenix and Scottsdale real estate market is radical, frenzied, hurried. Adjectives such as conservative, moderate, and subdued have seldom described this market, but this is where we currently find ourselves.

 

Much of the rest of the country is also in a lull and many cities are experiencing decreasing prices. We are currently through our 24 month price run up, and now in moderation mode, but NOT decreasing in value, in fact still slightly increasing.

 

The good news for Sellers is that even though demand has remained low over the last 6 months, creating a mild buyer’s market, the supply is quickly shrinking. Even in just the last 30 days we have seen a dramatic decrease in the amount of homes available. As I’ll explain more below, this is mainly due to a lack of new listings, probably sellers reticent to try selling in the recent buyer’s market. As a result, we are back in the balanced zone, though probably not for long. This is Arizona after all.

 

NEW PHOENIX-METRO LISTINGS AT 14 YEAR LOW

 

In a recent analysis of new listings hitting our market, Michael Orr of ASU and the Cromford Report has compared the first two weeks of July 2014, to the same two weeks for each of the previous 14 years going back to 2001, and states that new listings are at their “lowest” point since then. July 2014 registered 3568 new listings. When compared to previous years, the next lowest listing total was 4027 back in 2012. In 2001, for example, there were 4021 new listings. The high point of 6651 new listings was in 2006. So, if you’ve been considering selling your home, now might be an opportune time.

 

CANADIANS LOVE ARIZONA REAL ESTATE – CHINESE? NOT SO MUCH!

 

We’ve long known that Canadians love to buy real estate in Arizona. For a while last year, Canadians were the largest out of state buyers even surpassing Californians. With the booming economy of China, some have wondered if the Chinese will commence a buying spree in Arizona. Well, according to the National Association of Realtors, that is not likely in the near future. I quote from NAR:

 

There is little to no evidence of a large amount of buying from China in Arizona. It seems from all the evidence that the Chinese, many of whom are wealthy people looking to diversify where they keep their assets, are focused on the most expensive places to find housing, namely the fashionable areas of California. The median price paid by a Chinese buyer, according to NAR, is $523,148 for the

period April 2013 to March 2014. This is far higher than the buyers from other major countries and more than double the median for Canadians which was $212,500. When it comes to the Chinese buyer, our affordability seems to be a disadvantage. Canadians, however, appreciate a bargain and also our overdoses of sunshine.

 

 

2013 PROFILES OF HOME BUYERS AND SELLERS

 

So what do we know about the Buyers and Sellers of 2013? Who’s bought? How old were they? How much money did they make? What was the typical size of their home purchased? These and a multitude of other data are available to Realtors who opt to purchase it. Some of the findings include:

 

Characteristics of Home Buyers

 

–  Typical buyer was 42 years old; 31 for the first time home buyer, and 52 for the repeat buyer

–  2012 Median income of buyers was $83,300. $64,400 for First Timers. $96,000 for repeats

–  66% of Home Buyers were married couples. The highest share since 2001

– Typical home purchased was 1900 SqFt in size, was built in 1992, and had 3 Bedrooms and 2 Baths

–  80% of home buyers purchased a detached single-family home

–  14% of recent buyers over the age of 50 bought a home in senior related housing

 

The Home Search Process

 

–  The first step for 42% of Home Buyers was to look online for properties

– 14% looked online for information about the Home Buying Process

–  The overall use of the internet for the buyer’s home search rose to 92% from last year

–  The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 10 homes

–  For more than half of buyers finding the right house was the most difficult step in the process

 

Home Sellers and Their Selling Experience

 

–  Almost half of home sellers traded up to a larger size and higher priced home

–  The typical seller has lived in their home for nine years, up from six years in 2007

–  88% of sellers were assisted by a real estate agent

–  Recent sellers sold their homes for 97% of listed price. 47% reported they reduced the price at least once

–  13% of recent sellers had to delay selling due to their home’s value being less than their mortgage

 

THANK YOU!

 

   A very special thanks to those of you who have recommended or referred me to others to help them in the home buying or selling process. Referrals are truly the lifeblood of our business and are the highest compliment we can receive. I personally meet with the client and handle their business. Jon handles the administrative, marketing, and follow through for which I’m grateful. It frees me up to do what I do best, which is to accomplish our client’s goals!

So, if you know of someone considering whether or not to make a real estate move, please let me know, or give them my direct line. I’d love the opportunity to help them anyway I can. 602-689-3100.

Mike Bodeen

Mike Bodeen