by MICHAEL BODEEN | Feb 14, 2022 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Mike's "Real State" of the Market, Real Estate News
“The dream of homeownership has grown more out of reach for many middle-class Americans during the pandemic.” This is the opening line from an article in the Wall Street Journal one week ago. Check out that Article here. The exact title is “Middle Class Gets Priced out of Homes.”
That National Association of Realtors released a recent study, in which the article stated that at the end of 2019, there was one available listing that was affordable for every 24 households in the income bracket of $75,000 to $100,000. By December 2021, the figure was one listing for every 65 households! Per the WSJ, the study “found that housing affordability worsened over the past two years for all but the very wealthiest Americans, and the shrinking number of homes on the market made home buying more difficult in every income bracket.”
Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale becoming unaffordable?
As we’ve been sharing for a while now, Phoenix-Metro is becoming unaffordable with only worse prospects in (at least) the near future. Whereas just a few years ago, we were considered an affordable relocation for companies looking to move here, but that has now all but disappeared. More and more, we will be seeing articles such as: “Phoenix Ranks among the least affordable American Cities.” Check out that Article here.
Less than two years ago, the median sales price of a home in Phoenix Metro was $180 per square foot. Today it is $280 psf. Homes currently under contract continue to show further price increases as well.
To compound matters, the article accurately points out that in many areas, rents are quickly rising also, having made it more difficult for folks to save up for a down payment. This is a cruel reward for prospective buyers wanting to do the right thing to get into a house affordably.
This is certainly true of Phoenix Metro. The double whammy of rent and purchase price increases is truly eliminating any good options for our local middle class.
No laughing matter.
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Sep 14, 2020 | Buying a Home, North Scottdale Zip Code Information, North Scottsdale News, Real Estate News, Selling a Home
The North Scottsdale real estate market is killing it! The seven zip codes which comprise North Scottsdale are currently showing a monthly median sales price of $715,000. One month ago, the median sales price was $650,000. This is a median increase of $65,000 in one month! Yes, you heard me correctly, the North Scottsdale median sales price rose $65,000 – 10% – in one month.
Listing inventory in North Scottsdale has plummeted. One year ago, North Scottsdale home inventory was at 1409. This year, there are only 1044 homes currently for sale in North Scottsdale – a 26% drop!
How about North Scottsdale rentals? Rising to record lease prices, North Scottsdale home rental prices just hit $1.45 per square foot (psf) this September. This is .06 cents psf higher since last month and a rise of .17 cents psf in one year – a 13% rental price increase.
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Nov 7, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News, Uncategorized
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Good news for Scottsdale’s snow birds! According to this past Saturday’s Phoenix Republic insert (AZ Republic) the Climate Prediction’s Center’s outlook calls for a “warm, dry winter for the Southwest, including the Phoenix metro area. At the same time our country’s neighbor to the north via The Canadian Farmer’s Almanac, the Climate Prediction Center, and La Nina forecasts are all predicting a cold winter for Canada. This chilly forecast could of course include our upper Midwest states such as Minnesota and North Dakota.
Oh, and by the way, do you think we might get a visitor bounce from Cubby-land to begin their defense of the crown during March spring training? Chris, a wonderful client and friend took me out to see my first Cubs game at their new Mesa ballpark last spring. It was a blast! Grab some tickets as soon as they’re announced.
Baseball is in a renaissance that we haven’t seen in decades. Thank you, Chicago, and Cleveland. Baseball may yet reclaim the title America’s past-time! And the baseball capital of the winter/spring world just happens to be — Phoenix, Arizona!
Okay, that’s a pretty good case for an increase in Snowbird population,this winter, but will that translate into increased sales? Rentals?
I say yes to both. In fact I’ll go out on a limb to say that it will be the best winter for buying AND leasing that we’ve had in years. This could mean a run on inventory which could very well cause a spike in pricing in the moderate price range of $250k to $500,000. I also think we’ll see a spike in number and price in “Executive Leases” which are luxury homes being leased for a minimum of 12 months.
And I don’t believe Tuesday’s election plays any real significant part in short term sales numbers regardless of who wins. My gut feeling is we’re starting a strong move forward in AZ housing.
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October sales were very strong across the valley compared to last year. Looking at various cities and their sales transactions in the public records for this past October, we see the following growths over 2015:
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City
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Oct 2015 Sales
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Oct 2016 Sales
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Change
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Goodyear
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189
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267
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+41.3%
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Sun City
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143
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198
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+38.5%
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Paradise Valley
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30
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38
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+26.7%
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Chandler
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485
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606
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+24.9%
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Gilbert
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506
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627
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+23.9%
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Cave Creek
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79
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96
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+21.5%
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Tolleson
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76
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92
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+21.1%
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Buckeye
|
196
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231
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+17.9%
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Mesa
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819
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964
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+17.7%
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Peoria
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408
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472
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+15.7%
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Avondale
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134
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154
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+14.9%
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Tempe
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196
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223
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+13.8%
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Glendale
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406
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461
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+13.5%
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Surprise
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298
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337
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+13.1%
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Phoenix
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2144
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2241
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+4.5%
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Scottsdale
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698
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729
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+4.4%
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Sun City West
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112
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112
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flat
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Queen Creek
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160
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145
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-9.4%
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*All data courtesy of the Cromford Report |
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by JONATHAN BODEEN | Oct 31, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News
The story goes that Jack Swilling, a confederate veteran of the civil war, while traveling through the Salt River Valley in 1867, saw a potential spot for farming. He formed a community that same year about 4 miles east of our present city Phoenix. Lord Darrell Duppa, one of the original settlers in Swilling’s party suggested the name “Phoenix.” It stuck.
According to ancient mythology there is a long-lived bird that is cyclically regenerated or reborn, known as the Phoenix. Associated with the Sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor.
A phoenix depicted in a book of legendary creatures by
FJ Bertuch (1747-1822)
Was this a highly prophetic name given to our illustrious city? Over the decades our community has certainly had more than its fair share of real estate ups and downs where home values would crash and burn followed by catapultic value rises. Are we in the midst of a catapultic rising phase once again?
First, the numbers. Case-Schiller’s most recent 20 city home price index shows that for the 3-month period ending August 2016, Portland (11.7%) and Seattle (11.4%) have had double digit appreciation compared with August of 2015. Okay, no surprise there. Nor is it a surprise that Phoenix is in the middle of the pack with a 5.2% annual rise. We’ve been reporting for months now that we’ve been experiencing a balanced, non-bubble market.
But what is of interest is that Phoenix has risen to the top of all cities for its month to month appreciation (5.9%) up from 5.5% in July.
Bubble time for Phoenix? Not here, not now. Sustained growth? I think so. For the first time in decades, Phoenix will continue to grow and prosper. Our current population growth is being fueled by folks who want to live here. Aging boomers and ‘finally getting smart’ millennials want to live here.
We are currently in our 5th year of rising values but still have not met the peak of $184.00 per square foot that occurred back in summer of 2006. The valley currently sits at $140 psf – and rising!
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Oct 3, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News
Consistency in Phoenix – Who Would Guess?
Back in February of this year, we reported that our local Phoenix Metro residential real estate market, as a whole, was strong and balanced. Currently, when we remain “in balance,” at least when looking at the Valley as a whole. The story changes a little bit of course when you break down the market by price. $500k and up for example is generally dreary for sellers, where as the $250k and under sellers are swimming in buyers begging for their homes. For a market that was known for radical highs and lows this past decade, our continued consistency is remarkable.
From a Realtor perspective, the market has been strongly balanced for the past 3 years with a few periodic dips and rises, but with consistent annual appreciation. This appreciation has enabled the new home market to strengthen as well giving buyers more choice in homes then we’ve had since the great recession.
The most recent market numbers:
- Active Listings: 20,153 versus 20,024 last year – up 0.6% – and up 5.0% from 19,186 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,065 versus 5,789 last year – up 4.8% – but down 4.2% from 6,331 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 10,013 versus 9,003 last year – up 11.2% – but down 3.0% from 10,318 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,390 versus 7,003 last year – up 5.5% – but down 7.1% from 7,952 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $141.92 versus $133.44 last year – up 6.4% – and up 2.2% from $138.81 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $230,000 versus $213,000 last year – up 8.0% – and up 1.0% from $227,800 last month
There is much chatter these days about economic changes that will be happening following the election. Some buyers and sellers have put off buying and selling until January. The best change is that as a country we can hopefully move on from the political drama that we’re seeing moment by moment. Wouldn’t it be refreshing to say that our country was strong and balanced rather than weak and divided?
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Jul 25, 2016 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News
According to Michael Orr of the Cromford Report, the average closed lease rate for all Phoenix Metro areas and home types within the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) is 85.1 cents per sq. ft. per month. This is great news for landlords, but not so much for valley renters. Last year it was 81.0 cents which means an annual increase of 5.1%. Two years ago the number was 75.0 cents and in July 2013 it was 69.6 cents. This shows a rise in rents of 22.3% in the last 3 years! This is dramatically faster than the increase in average wages. Consequently, the typical tenant has a lot less to spend on things other than housing.
This situation is very good for landlords and should create motivation for tenants to become home owners. High rents, however (per Orr), reduce disposable income and so impairs the ability to exercise that motivation to buy. It also reduces the demand for other goods and services. Tenants tend to feel less wealthy than they did 3 years ago unless they have improved their earnings through promotion or job switching. This goes some way to explain why a significant number of people think the economy is doing poorly when almost all the actual numbers are quite positive. Wealth is draining away from tenants but expanding for real estate property owners. With that background it is counter-intuitive that renting has become more popular even for people who can afford to own.
There were 2,998 active rental listings as of Saturday, down from 3,291 on July 23, 2015 and 4,474 on July 23, 2014. In 2008 at this point there were 8,525. Supply appears to be very tight and failing to improve.
Wealth is draining away from tenants but expanding for real estate property owners. With that background it is counter-intuitive that renting has become more popular even for people who can afford to own.
– Michael Orr
