A Tipping Point? Or More of the Same? Optimism for the Housing Economy

Across Maricopa County, we in the housing industry, including lenders, title agents, builders and we Realtors, have great optimism for 2015.  It is still very early in the year, but that hasn’t stopped those of us who pay attention to the market from looking for the smallest of evidences to substantiate our hopes.

One of those small evidences we have notices is an increase in the number of houses currently in escrow compared with this time last year.  Theoretically this should represent an increase of demand, which is really the one thing our housing economy lacks right now.  This increase is not yet great enough to warrant any amount real celebration but is still worth noting.

If we look at the amount of dollar volume sold in Maricopa County last December compared with December 2013, we see a small decrease.  Now December is never a strong month for sales in Arizona, and January is usually worse, so it is possible to make too much of it, but still, it keeps us from breathing easy just yet.

You may know that here in the Valley of the Sun, the high season for Real Estate is really March through July.  Already we are seeing that people are coming out of the woodwork to buy and sell.  Our listing inventory is low right now, having sold most all our listings, but we have already three or four that should be coming to the market soon.  We assume that other Realtors are experiencing the same.

To be fair, it probably will not be until late February or March until we will see substantial signs of 2015 being any better than 2014.  Over all 2014 was a flat year, but we’re confident of a better 2015. Until then we’re thankful that we have a market more in balance – more or less.

     All data referenced courtesy of CromfordReport.com, in our opinion, the very best source of accurate Real Estate and housing data for Arizona.

Preparing Your Home to sell

     Few things in modern life can be as frustrating as having a home on the sales market week after week and month after month without it selling.  We are currently in a real estate market that’s neither hot nor cold, but bordering on a buyer’s market. The average market time for a Phoenix Metro area single family detached home that has not sold is 134 days.

In Part 1 of our home sales series, we discussed the importance of timing the listing to go on the market. We made mention that timing may be different based on the type and location of the neighborhood and the amount of buyers that are typically drawn to it.

Last week we learned that correct home pricing trumps all marketing and home preparation. This week we will learn the importance of condition and staging to get the best selling price in the shortest amount of time possible.

     There are many good articles and HGTV programming that extol the benefits of staging a home to sell. Indeed many companies and services have sprouted in the past 10 years for just this purpose. How needful, how helpful is it to have your home staged? Much, but it may not be as difficult as you think.

     In my 35 PLUS years of experience I can boil down staging advice to a half dozen “its” in the order of importance. 

 

1)      Clear it.

2)      Clean it.

3)      Fix it.

4)      Lighten it.

5)      Appeal it.

6)      Stage it.

 

1)      Clear it: We are a nation of stuffers. Ideally, this step should be taken well in advance of your listing period. One of the (albeit few) advantages of moving is the golden opportunity to get rid of stuff. E-Bay or relatives for the good stuff, Garage sales or Goodwill for the rest. If you’re selling everything, you may want to consider going the “estate sale” route. You won’t make a ton of money but you get rid of everything in one fell swoop.  And there is a lot to say for that. With a few exceptions, remove all clutter including family photos and wall posters. Clean and organize closets. Pack everything you’re not using. You’ll have to pack it soon anyway.

2)    Clean it:  If you’re not one that knows how to or wants to thoroughly clean a home, hire a professional to clean all the nooks and crannies. Believe me, people notice, appreciate, and mention cleanliness when they see it. Make the kitchen, bathrooms, and hard surfaced floors shine. Find and eliminate all odors. Ask someone who doesn’t live in the home to give it their nose test. We’re too use to these smells but someone from the outside will notice. If there are pet or smoking odors, get rid of them, even if you have to remove and replace carpet and pad.  As the old commercial puts it, “You can pay me now or pay me later. In experience, strong negative odors will prevent, or at best delay, a home sale. Some buyers will ask to leave right away. What about odor masking such as scented candles? It may help, but it’s not the best. Masking is often a red flag for people to wonder what the sellers are hiding. Some owners have loaned out their pets to friends or family members while the home is on the market. And clean the windows – yes, inside and out! The bottom line is that many buyers will judge the condition of your whole house by its cleanliness.

3)    Fix it:   The Arizona residential purchase contracts stipulate that all the mechanicals (moving components) be in working condition prior to close of escrow. Plumbing (including leaks), electrical, appliances, heating and AC, and pool cleaning apparatus needs to be repaired if not in working order. Replace all burnt out bulbs and make sure the doorbell is operative. Repair any fences/gates and give them a fresh coat of paint or stain if necessary. Though not a requirement in the contract, having a roof that’s in good order is a huge help come inspection time. Replace any cracked windows or broken screens. Repair caulking in tubs and showers.

4)    Lighten it:  Natural light is a huge feature in a home. Whatever we can do to increase it, will help our sales efforts. Often times it’s as simple as having window coverings open. Painting walls can have the dual benefit of a positive fresh scent and lightening up a dark room. And always have lights on when the home is being shown.

5)   Appeal it:  Curb appeal is talked about a lot by us Realtors, and for very good reason. It helps us get potential buyers into your home and you can’t sell your home unless buyers take the time to go see it!  Many buyers do “drive-byes” and if a house looks great from the outside, there’s a good chance they will want to go see it – and vice versa. All buyers typically view online photos and the quality of those photos is perhaps the most important reason why a buyer may or may not see a home. So a fresh coat of exterior paint, always trimmed and mowed lawns, and a clean yard will help bring those buyers into your home. Make sure all debris, toys and lawn equipment are removed. Trim shrubs and eliminate dead trees and branches.

6)    Stage it: The tough part is already done including, clearing, cleaning, painting, fixing. Now the question, should we stage it? Maybe yes, maybe no. This is where a Realtor professional’s experience can be a big time help. Once all the above has occurred, you may not need to stage, but in most cases some staging advice is important. We provide the services of a professional interior designer who literally goes room to room suggesting what can be done to enhance the show-appeal. She may recommend painting (and which colors to use), item removal, cleaning if necessary, and item addition (if important). (In this staging section, it may be possible that your home could benefit by doing some updating, which falls under remodeling. This is an entirely separate issue and article that we’ll address soon)

Bottom line? Prepare well and your home will sell well!

Home Pricing Strategies – What price?

 In last week’s blog, we discussed the importance of timing the listing to go on the market. We made mention that timing may be different based on the type and location of the neighborhood and the amount of buyers that are typically drawn to it.
     This week we want to look at the MOST IMPORTANT part of the property listing. Pricing.
     Without argument, the most important part of the home sale process is the home’s pricing. As important as timing, staging, and property conditioning are, they will not trump bad pricing. One of the most important responsibilities of the Realtor professional is to provide an accurate market analysis of the property’s value. The other part of this equation is the seller being on board with the right price. Trust in your Realtor professional’s price opinion will go a long way toward a successful and timely transaction.
     In determining the right listing price, the Realtor professional needs to show the homeowner not only the neighborhood comparable sales during the past six months, but also the current “Pendings” and “Actives.” If the market is feverish (either rising or falling) then sales should only go back 3 months. If it’s a slow, plodding market, with little price change, we can look at sales longer than 6 months, but lenders may not.
     Why do we look at Pendings and Actives? Well, for one, Appraisers look at them, because lenders want to know what’s going on in the overall market. Pending sales can be the MOST accurate gauge of CURRENT sales activity and values, but since they may not close and we may not know the closing price yet, best practices would dictate using only closed sales.
     Active listings are used to help determine the competition. If for example a similar floorplan has been for sale for 6 months and has not sold, we will want to compare that listing with our listing to ask why hasn’t this listing sold?  Usually, nothing less than a phone call to this other Realtor is in order. This is where Realtor experience and savvy could be the difference in getting top dollars.
     So now comes the time for structuring the listed price. If the recent comparable sales dictate a $375,000 sales price, should you price it at $375K? This is where knowing the current market trends is key. In a normal market we would probably advise a price slightly about 3% above the sold pricing. In a slumping market, we would probably want to price it no higher than comps. And vice versa in a strong appreciating market, pricing slightly more than that may be in order. Either way, if we have priced the property correctly, we’re pretty much assured that a sale won’t get “kicked out” of escrow down the line by the buyer’s lender but will close as scheduled.
     And in the end, closing is the goal right?
 
Next week, we will look at what should take place in property preparing the home for sale.

So WHEN is the Best Time to Sell?

The holidays are over and you’ve sworn you’ll never have ALL the family over for Christmas dinner again, at least not uncle, “Lampshade” Louie. Discussion has once again turned to, “Should we put the house on the market?”

The all too common spousal back and forth banter takes place, but this time, you’re both in agreement. Though we may love it, we’re going to list it!

But when? Is there a best time to put the house on the market? Or does it even matter? Important question. Unfortunately sometimes there’s no choice about the “when” because your job transfer finally came through, or finances dictate the time to be NOW!

With few exceptions, more Phoenix-Scottsdale homes are under contract in April and May than any other month.

But if  you had a choice, and you wanted to peg it according to the season that most buyers are looking, then yes, there is a statistical difference, but with caveats.

If you’re looking at pure statistics, and perhaps common sense, the ideal time to list your house in the Phoenix-Scottsdale metro area begins in March/April. With few exceptions, more Phoenix-Scottsdale homes are under contract in April and May than any other month. Of course if you live in a colder, snowier part of the country, then that timing will be delayed.

The best time to list should be when your curb appeal looks the very best. Green lawns, blooming flora, and a freshly painted exterior (if needed) will by themselves increase your house showings. In general, the more house showings, the quicker the sale and for the best price.

The other reason why spring is the better time to sell is that so families can be settled in their new home before school starts up again in August.

Now, having said all that, the choice of “when” will be different for the type of area you live in. If you live in an “Over 55” community, such as Sun City West, Trilogy in Vistancia, or McCormick Ranch, then you will want your house on the market as soon as you can following the holidays. This is when snowbirds who are renting and enjoying our mild winter desert temps, or out of town visitors, are going to be looking at homes for sale, especially seeking out Open Houses to go through.

Next week (Part Two) we’ll look at how best to prepare your Phoenix-Scottsdale home for sale and how much you should do, and not do.

2014 Wrap and 2015 a Turnaround Year!

For sellers, the 2014 Phoenix Metro real estate market was a tough year.  Not terrible or disastrous, but still not the greatest.  It is however, in our opinion, a turning point.

For buyers, 2014 was (and still remains) a great year. Home values and mortgage rates stayed down, when most analysts expected both to rise, especially rates. Currently, mortgage rates are at an 18 month low!

For reasons we’ll explore, we’re expecting significant change ahead in 2015.

The greatest issue faced by sellers is the (still current) overarching lack of demand.  There simply isn’t as many buyers looking for homes as experts had been anticipating.  Why is this? There have been a number of reasons given and we aren’t at all sure which reasons bear the most weight, but here are the most common ones:

  1. Overly tight lending restrictions
  2. Generational differences in lifestyles (many more adults are living with roommates or family today than in the past)
  3. Large student loans keeping many from buying their first home
  4. Previous short sale or foreclosure defaults keeping buyers as renters (we call this the “penalty box”)

Fortunately, this lack of demand has not been totally disastrous.  For one it has shown us that our market is healthy enough to remain balanced instead of tanking.  Even after 12 months of relatively low sales valley-wide, prices have leveled, without much movement up or down. This is a huge plus for prospective buyers. Once demand begins to increase again, which we believe will happen by the 2nd quarter of 2015, prices will again rise.

As we have said before our current market is actually looking more traditional in a lot of senses. Foreclosures and short sales are back down to very low historical levels, the majority of current buyers are seeking  owner occupied homes rather than investments, and national polls are showing that most people DO want to buy a home, but they are not yet ready.

On top of that we have good reasons to be positive going into 2015.  Among them:

  1. There has been traction within the federal government to loosen their restrictions in light of the national lack of demand. For instance, Fannie Mae just recently have come up with a 3% cash down conventional loan for first time homebuyers. Not having this available really hurt the high 200K to mid 300k range this year.
  2. 2015 will be the first year where a large portion of folks who lost their homes to short sale or foreclosures in 2008 will be able to start buying again. There is great optimism that as these folks come out of the “penalty box” they will start to buy again.
  3. Interest rates may still remain very low thanks to reduced inflation, and thanks to cheap oil.

Though it has been a discouraging year for many sellers (especially in the 300-400k range), many of whom have had their homes on the market for much longer than we as Realtors generally anticipate, all in all I don’t think the Real Estate market is doing badly.

We also can’t be overly positive, as many from our cloth tend to be.  To sell your home in the market still means being willing to be aggressive with your presentation (clean home, staged if possible, great photos), exposure (have the home advertised well on the MLS and other home finder websites), and pricing.  If you are not willing to be competitive with your pricing then there is not much hope.