by MICHAEL BODEEN | May 24, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog
9.6% of Loans However Remain Underwater
Homeowners with mortgages in Arizona have increasingly been improving their delinquency level which is defined as having a late payment, but not having a Notice of Foreclosure action recorded against it. As you can see from the chart below there has been a continuous downward (positive) trend which has now ranked Arizona being better off than most other states in this category.
- March 2010 = 11.3%
- March 2011 = 8.6%
- March 2012 = 6.1%
- March 2013 = 4.9%
- March 2014 = 3.8%
- March 2015 = 3.3%
Other positive news in our local post-distressed economic climate is that Lender Owned Homes:
- make up 1.9% of current listings vs 4.8% in 2013
- make up 4.9% of Pending Listings vs 12.2% in 2013
- make up 3.6% of monthly sales vs 10.4% in 2013
And Pre-Foreclosure homes (Notice of Pending Foreclosure) versus two years ago have also improved in that:
Pre-Foreclosure homes are now 5.1% of active listings vs 14.9% in 2013
- Pre-Foreclosure homes are now 7.9% of Pending Listings vs 26.2% in 2013
- Pre-Foreclosure homes are now 3.1% of Monthly sales vs 12.4% in 2013
On the not-so-good part of all this is that 9.6% of Arizona homeowners with a mortgage owe more on their home than its value. This number has been continually improving, but is still too high.
As values increase and the economy strengthens, these numbers will continue to drop. Eleven other states are worse off than Arizona with Florida leading the pack at 15.1%.
These statistics have been provided via Michael Orr of the Cromford Report via The Black Knight Financial Services.
– Mike Bodeen
by MICHAEL BODEEN | May 18, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog
But Do Pending Sales Indicate a Leveling Off?
Sales prices rose again in the past 30 days in our Phoenix Metro communities measuring all areas and types of housing. Many are wondering if this recent rise will be a continuous surge or a momentary blip on the proverbial radar screen. Fair question.
With access to what we believe is the best real estate analytics in the nation via Michael Orr and the ASU School of Real Estate, Arizona is in a mostly enviable position to get a glimpse of what the local real estate future holds, at least in the near term. And as always, we continue to preach that “all real estate is local,” meaning whatever may be happening in the big picture of the Phoenix Metro real estate market may not be true of your neighborhood.
For the l0ng term, the Phoenix Metro real estate area seems to be moving in a positive direction. As Arizona strengthens its core job base away from home construction, which we have in years past relied on to grow, our economy could likewise grow in the health industry, bio sciences and the emerging Silicon Desert.
But here in the short term, for the monthly period ending May 15, the Valley is currently recording a sales price Per Square Foot (PSF) of $136.34 averaged for all areas and types within our MLS. This is 2.2% above the PSF of $133.42 measured April 15 and represents the second month in a row with a significant increase in average pricing.
Distressed Property Sales Continue to Decrease
Another real estate bright spot is that REO (Bank Owned) and short sales continue to decrease their market share, while “normal” or traditional property sales increased. The market share of normal sales increased from 93.1% to 93.5% over the last 30 days. REOs lost market share from 3.8% to 3.5%, the lowest since July 2007. Short sales and pre-foreclosures also lost market share from 3.1% to 2.9%.
Pending Sales Prices Slowed Last Month
On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list PSF of $136.08, 1.3% below the reading for April 15. This could indicate a slowing of price increases. In reviewing the average list price numbers for Pending listings, Michael Orr of ASU / Cromford Report is forecasting another slight sales price drop when those numbers are looked at in mid-June.
As Realtor professionals, like Stock market analysts, we can tend to take a micro view of the importance of short term price increases or decreases, but in the end, the most important thing is not that, but our day to day living enjoyment in our “home” rather than our investment.
What are your thoughts? Shoot us an e-mail to let us know or ask any questions.
See you next week!
– Mike Bodeen
by MICHAEL BODEEN | May 10, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog, North Scottsdale News
Seller Patience or Radical Price Surgery – Your Choice
All real estate is local. When observing the trends and data for the Phoenix Metro real estate market, we often use all parts of the metro area (macro) and all types of housing, including single family detached (SFD), condos, mobile homes etc, though SFD is the great majority of all types.
When determining the value of a specific property, we use the “micro” approach where we pull comparable sales from the immediate neighborhood and usually up to a mile away – the same parameters most often used by appraisers.
When determining trends, we are usually safe to use the “macro” approach, because quite often the vast majority of homes fall into the similar trend of the greater. When we start to analyze the more narrow parts of the market however, we throw just about everything out the window.
We can therefore say that overall the Phoenix sales market is improving for sellers. Sales are increasing, market time is decreasing, pending sales have been increasing, and the sales price per SqFt is increasing again.
But all real estate is local. The Northeast Valley sales market in the luxury division (Over $1 Million) is far different than the under $500K market in the rest of the valley. In the NE Valley luxury market (16 zip codes) which includes Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Carefree, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills and a few Phoenix zips, the market time required to sell a home, with one exception, are all over 300 days, and many of these zip codes require between 680 and 1100 days to sell. The market temperature description that comes to mind is ‘frigid.’
On the other hand, at the lower part of the pricing market, such as under $200,000, the market time for a number of communities is less than one month. These communities are ‘smokin’ hot. Here, sellers need to be careful not to list their homes too cheaply – they could leave money on the table.
But what if you have a pricey luxury home that needs to get sold now, (within 30-60 days) what can you do to sell that home? That’s a great question and unfortunately, there’s no guarantee it can be sold quicker unless you perform radical surgery dealing with the listing price.
In truth, a “radically” reduced price may “appear” like you’re giving away the home when in fact it may end up to be the “Fair Market Value” of the home because the great majority of the other homes for sale are significantly overpriced.
Remember, the market tells us our values. You MUST lead the market to show that your home is one of the neighborhood’s best values. To do that you must talk to your Realtor straight out and say, “Mike, you’re telling me the market time in my community is 600+ days? I don’t want to be listed in 600+ days. What is the price I need to set the house at to sell it within 30 – 60 days???
If you’ve never seen a Realtor GULP before, you will now after asking that question. Then get two other professional opinions asking the same question.
– Mike Bodeen
by JONATHAN BODEEN | May 5, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog, North Scottsdale News
First off, apologies for the late market update! As our faithful readers know by now, the market is heating up, as is our business! Yesterday saw both my father and I running around like the proverbial headless chickens.
To evidence the rising market, and to show you the extent to which our optimism soars, take a look at some of the below facts.
APRIL SALES MARKET SUMMARY
Here are the basic ARMLS (local Multiple Listing Service) numbers for May 1, 2015 relative to May 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings: 21,512 versus 26,205 last year – supply down 17.9% – and down 3.5% from 22,303 last month
- Pending Listings: 7,951 versus 7,199 last year – up 10.4%– and up 1.2% from 7,853 last month
- Under Contract/Pending Listings:12,276 versus 10,584 last year – up 15.8% – and up 2.4% from 11,988 last month
- Monthly Sales: 8,363 versus 7,572 last year – up 10.4%– and up 6.0% from 7,887 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.88 versus $130.27 last year – up 4.3%– andup 2.9% from $131.99 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $202,000 versus $190,000 last year – up 6.3% – and up 1.0% from $200,000 last month
The Take away?! Prices are definitely rising. That statistic about the average sales price per square foot is in itself a huge deal. A 2.9% increase in one month is a very good sign. Obviously that probably won’t happen every month, but it is great none the less (for sellers anyway).
We won’t break out the champagne yet though. We are heading into the peak of the buying season and there is still more than half of the year left.
– Jonathan Bodeen
Thank you (again) Michael Orr and the Cromford Report for the statistical data provided here
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Apr 27, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog
Good News Continues for Landlords – For Renters, not so Good
More reports coming in are further demonstrating a local real estate market that continues to strengthen in a number of facets.
First off, the rental market continues to see strong demand in single family detached (SFD) listings on the market, with the number of active listings dropping further in the past month with but a 27 day supply of available rentals. The average lease listing price is $2077 per month.
The market for condo rentals has loosened somewhat with 57 days of supply, up from last month’s number of 54. The average asking list price for these rentals is now $1654 per month. Landlords are continuing to enjoy this rental market for sure.
As demand continues for rentals, this will undoubtedly push renters into the home buying market which will then continue to put upward pressure on sales prices – an interesting scenario that could have both rental and home prices increase. If this happens, it will also help the building industry, as our need for housing supply in the Valley. (See next story)
Substantial Building Permit Increase
Building permit numbers just released by the census bureau for March show that Central Arizona’s building permits recorded their highest level since 2007 with 1438 permits issued in Maricopa and Pinal counties.. This is an increase of 43% over last month!
Northeast and Southeast Valley Improves Slightly For Home Buyers… West Side Not so Much
New listings have started to arrive faster than they did last year and are up 2.1% for the quarter to date. They are up 5.4% quarter to date compared with 2013. Because we are at the height of the buying season, the additional supply is not increasing the total number of active listings. However they are not declining as they were in February and March and this will moderate the market in some areas. Unfortunately for both sellers and buyers the new supply tends to be arriving fastest in the areas that need it least. The West Valley remains very short of supply while the Northeast and many parts of the Southeast are starting to look a little better from a buyer’s perspective.
Thank you Michael Orr and ASU (Cromford Report) for the statistical data on all of the above reports
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Apr 20, 2015 | Bodeen Team Blog, Buying a Home, Real Estate News, Selling a Home
Although not great news for Phoenician buyers, sellers and prospective sellers of single family homes across the Valley can start their happy dance. For the monthly period ending April 15th, the Valley’s prices have moved up 2.1(% since March 15th. The new average sales price per SqFt is 133.49 averaged for all areas and types of housing across the MLS database, which is what we refer to as “the Valley.” Last month it measured $130.70. This is on top of a 1% increase from mid-February to mid-March.
Other indicators are also falling into line to bolster the continued strengthening of what might soon be a very active Seller’s market:
Current Listings: 22,574 One Month Ago: 22,934 (1% Drop)
Pending Listings: 8375 “ 8,048 (4% Increase)
Sales Per Month: 8368 “ 6655 (26% Increase)
Avg Market Time: 88 Days “ 95 Days (7% Drop)
Pending Sales PSF: $138* “ $134 (3% Increase)
Months of Supply: 3.3 “ 4.2 (21% Drop)
*PSF = Price Per SqFt
Based on a number of stats, including the Pending Sales price per SqFt, we can, with relative certainty see that the May report will have another bounce in values. Aside from the obvious negative buyer ramifications of rising values, further property increases will continue to release more homeowners to be able to sell who have still been underwater (home value less than mortgage debt).
