by MICHAEL BODEEN | Jun 20, 2014 | Mike's "Real State" of the Market, Real Estate News
OK you number junkies, check this out!
Now, I can’t swear to it exactly, but I would have to say (nay, repeat) that the Phoenix Metro area has some, if not the best real estate reporting in the nation from a variety of credible and intelligent – and dare I add, accurate, sources. And these sources are mostly from the private sector including our own Arizona Republic, ASU School of Real Estate and Business including Michael Orr’s Cromford Report. There is really no excuse for anyone, least of all Realtors, to not be on top of what’s happening in the local real estate numbers game. The key for Professionals is to be able to honestly cherry pick this information for our clients in a quick and painless way so that you “catch the drift” of what’s happening in our market.
There is really no excuse for anyone, least of all Realtors,
to not be on top of what’s happening in the local real estate market.
Why is this important you ask? If you can have the best available information on any given matter, you can (should) proceed wisely to make decisions, or certainly to help point others to an honest and credible source for this direction. An example would be in our current Phoenix Metro area market, that has continued to slow since last August – some have used the word “stalled.”
The Full report is available on our weekly blog which goes out every Monday morning. We call it “Mike’s Monday Morning Market Snapshot.”
In a Nutshell, Here are the Highlights of the data for Phoenix Metro:
1) Monthly Sales are down 21% from this time last year
2) Total inventory of homes for sale is up 46% from last year
3) 3.90 Month Supply of Available Homes for Sale – No change from last month
4) Average sales price up 4% over last year. Median sales price up 9.7% year over year
5) Median Sales Price Forecast from Pending Price Index for next month: No change.
6) Foreclosures Pending: Down 49% from one year ago
7) Average Days on Market: 83 vs. 66 last year
8) Purchase Applications: Phoenix ranks 38th out of 50 states for new loan applications. (Note: Michael Orr stated, “We have just seen the highest percentage of sales financed by loans since November 2008.”
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Jun 1, 2014 | Bodeen Team Blog
One of the most asked questions I get in the Phoenix/Scottsdale area is, “When’s the best time to sell my home?
In general, if it’s a Seller’s market where inventory is low and buyers are plentiful – all months are good, but there are some months, that if you have a choice, it would be best to stay away from – the holidays for sure. Reasons being is that there are fewer buyers, and practically, it’s a stress that few homeowners want to endure. Plus, the best time of year, when most buyers are looking commences in February and by that time you will have accumulated added “days on the market” which will work against you.
Statistically, most “closings” occur in Spring, specifically, March and April. Therefore, most homes go “under contract” in February and March. Most buyers tend to look in the spring following the holiday season. So sellers, ideally, you will want to have your house on the market by February 1st – in Arizona that is.
Having said all that, having your house on the market during the holidays is not the end of the world, especially if you live in an “over 55” community like Sun City West for example. In that case being on the market during our winter months is a benefit as that has the most buyers for that particular market. Scottsdale also has plentiful buyers for second homes in the winter months.
And this next year, Arizona will have an immense amount of out of town visitors coming to the valley for the Super Bowl and Pro Bowl, not to mention all the other great winter attractions we have while the rest of the country is still digging out.
-Mike Bodeen
602.689.3100
by MICHAEL BODEEN | May 14, 2014 | Mike's "Real State" of the Market
Well, there’s no doubt about it, we’re in a Buyer’s Market and for the short term it will continue, but it’s not all that bad.
First of all, the facts: home sales of all types in the Phoenix Metro area are at their lowest level since August of 2009 – almost 5 years ago, indicating a huge drop in demand.
Second, there are more homes on the market now than there have been since June of 2011 – almost 3 years ago. We currently have 30,506 homes listed for sale, which is up from only 20,061 one year ago – a 52% increase in just one year.
We currently have a 4.6 month supply of total inventory, which is not that bad historically, and probably close to what we had in the early 2000’s. When compared to last couple of years however, it does not look to snappy, since it the highest level since May of 2011. But consider this, when comparing the amount of inventory to February of 2008, you’d find that we had 20.4 months of supply. Essentially, when looking at the short term, it looks a little grim, but when you stand back and look at the history of Real Estate and what a normal market should look like… We can say we’re doing alight!
Third, homes that are in currently in escrow have dropped 30% when compared to this time last year. It went from 11,502 to just 8,022. Most of us agree that this is due mostly to the investors have left Arizona for other parts of the country. In a way, that’s okay as they were the bottom feeders anyway.
And lastly, there is a huge disparity between the average price per square foot ($177 PSF) of homes on the market now to the prices that others are actually selling at ($135). Clearly many of the homes listed will need to drop in price if they want to be competitive in this buyer’s market.
There is however positive news in our market! The amount of homes currently in foreclosure is at its lowest level in 7 years, that’s right March of 2007 to be more precise.
Also, mortgage rates continue to hold their own, which most predict will not last very long, especially if the macro economy continues to improve.
So buyers, it’s time to get off the fence. There’s a good supply and low mortgage rates! Give us a call. 602-689-3100.
by MICHAEL BODEEN | May 12, 2014 | Bodeen Team Blog
But Student Loans are a Drag…
Demand for homes continues to stall according to the most recent report on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Equity researcher Stephen Kim has released an in-depth report titled: The Return of the First-Time Buyer. In this report he cites three solid reasons why potential homebuyers could enter the market:
1) Job growth is reaching an important threshold for improved household formation. The cumulative number of jobs created over the past several years has now reached the point where each new job will drive greater household growth.
2) Credit Availability starting to loosen: Lenders’ willingness to extend credit to borrowers in the entry-level “sweet spot” of 600-700 FICOs is gaining momentum.
3) Affordability still favorable: Buying a home is still 20% cheaper than renting and affordability is unlikely ever to be better, given interest rate and home price trends.
There is a BIG negative out there as well, he writes. And that is that Student Debt is the thorniest problem for the mortgage (hence housing) industry. Kim predicts that this period of slower growth is consistent with the view that the housing market will recover back to normalized levels by 2016.
I would add one other market incentive to include the return of the Boomer Buyer — getting back into the real estate game following their short sale or foreclosure.
-Mike Bodeen
602.341.9490
by MICHAEL BODEEN | Apr 7, 2014 | Mike's "Real State" of the Market
From 2005 to 2008, folks in Phoenix were buying homes in mass. Home loans were easy. If you could fog a mirror or blink three times in a row you were in! What few people thought about back then was having to pay back the loan, because as you remember, home values were shooting through the roof! It was not in most anyone’s thought track until the band stopped playing and the market crashed.
As the market turned downward, many of these buyers realized that they could not afford their loan. To add to that burden, they learned that selling their home wouldn’t relieve them of the debt because they owed more than the home was now worth.
The downturn was sharp and prolonged. Within three years hundreds of thousands of homeowners were “upside down” in their mortgages. Many lost their home in foreclosure or sold at a “short sale.” Because of the rules imposed by Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, FHA, etc., these homeowners would have to wait a set period of time, two to seven years, before they would again be allowed to obtain a new loan, and so of course they decided to rent.
As you know, property values began rising again in 2011, and these renters wanted to get back into homeownership. We call these folks “boomerang buyers.” Ironically enough, most of them are baby boomers and so I call them Boomerang Boomers, Boomer Boomerangs, or even Boomer squared. I digress. The point is, right now we are very much relying on them to float this current market since demand has dropped so low in general.
The hope is that in the next few years these boomerangers will be getting back into the market more and more. Heaven knows the millennials aren’t buying homes like we thought they would, so for now are hopes rest with boomer squared.
