Our market is providing mixed messages. Here are the basic numbers as reported by the Cromford Report last week comparing March 1, 2022 and March 1, 2021 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings: 4,588 vs 4,491 last year – up 2.2% – but down 5.9% vs 4,876 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 12,050 vs 12,630 last year – down 4.6% – but up 6.6% vs 11,302 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 8,000 vs 8,035 last year – down 0.4% – but up 12.7% vs 7,096 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $285 versus $231 last year – up 23.1% – and up 3.6% from $274.70 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000 vs $349,000 last year – up 27.5% – and up 2.7% vs $433,500 last month
  • Days of Inventory: 17 vs 16 last year vs 39 two years ago

First off, the supply of active listings, though up 2.2% from one year ago, fell 5.9% from last month. This limited inventory continues to spell bad news for buyers. Under Contract Listings dropped 4.6% compared to last year but were up 6.6% from last month. Sales dropped slightly from last year but were up a whopping 12.7% compared to last month.

And for those hoping there would be moderation in pricing, it’s not happening yet. The average monthly sales price per square foot (PSF), now at $285 PSF, was up (just?) 23.1% from last year, but launched upward 3.6% since last month. Calculating that on an annualized basis, that would be an increase of 43%. The monthly median sales price was up 27.5% from one year ago, and up 2.7% since the previous month – an annualized increase of 32%.

Rental Market Showing Signs of Softening?

Cromford reported over the weekend that the ARMLS (Arizona Regional MLS) rental supply has increased 39% compared to one year ago. (1543 to 2138 units) It should be noted that most rentals do not appear on ARMLS, but the numbers are significant enough to look at trends.

Supply is arriving faster. New rental listings are up 20% compared to 2021. In the last 4 weeks alone, there has been a 26% increase in new rental listings. The average lease list price shows a drop of $1.80 PSF from $1.93 one year ago. Single family detached homes to rent are up 99% – a significant increase, but apartments to rent are down 33%

Cromford further notes that the most likely supply of single-family homes to buy could come from wary investors finding it more difficult to rent the homes. This could happen if they’re finding it difficult to get tenants or the rent pricing falls.

On the other hand, the latest ARMLS PSF for places actually rented has now hit a new record of $1.38.

Go figure.