March numbers are showing continued huge strength in appreciation, but also possible trends that could slow the market. First, the stats:
- Active Listings: 5,051 vs 4,088 last year – up 23.6% – and up 10.1% from 4,588 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 11,620 vs 12,575 last year – down 7.6% – and down 3.6% vs 12,050 last month
- Monthly Sales: 10,123 vs 10,398 last year – down 2.6% – but up 26.6% from 7,998 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $291 versus $232 last year – up 25% – and up 2.3% from $285 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $456,000 versus $358,250 last year – up 27.3% – and up 2.5% from $445,000 last month
First, let’s look at our still hugely deficient listing inventory. Active (current) listings are up 24% (all numbers rounded) from one year ago and up 10% from last month – positive news for buyers! I’m not sure, however, how much help at this point this will be for our buyers, since mortgage rates are near 5%. Click here to read a great NPR article about it.
As expected, sales are slowing – somewhat. Under contract listings are down near 8% from last year, and down 3.6% from last month.
Sales spiked last month versus February, up near 27%, but have decreased versus last year by nearly 3%.
Crazy price increases continue. The monthly average sales price per square foot (PSF) is now at $291, compared with $232 just one year ago – a 25% rise. Of particular note is that the PSF is up from $285 just last month – a 2.3% rise. The Monthly Median has risen to $456,000 – a 27% increase from last year and up 2.5% from last month.
The huge bounce in mortgage rates these past few months (now near 5%) is combining with the higher priced inventory is eliminating MANY buyers from the market, especially the newbies. In fact, with all the purchases and owner refi’s over the past three years, there will be little incentive for homeowners to sell. There’s not much upside financially for them.
In fact, with all the purchases and owner refi’s over the past three years, there will be little incentive for homeowners to sell. There’s not much upside financially for them.
There also seems to be a possible turn in rentals. Rent prices are now decreasing, though not significantly. Average asking lease prices have fallen also, which is a leading indicator of closed rental prices.
Personally, I don’t see any major changes in pricing, either for sales or rentals. This was foreseen when we projected ahead of what the sales year has in store. We’re on the money regarding market slowing, but prices are still high. Is this a result of continued cash-buying investor groups?
Another story for another Monday!
Pray for Ukraine!